TACTICAL
The Mammoth own the underlying play
The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.1% 5v5 xG vs 53.4%.
Preview · EDM at UTA
Oilers at Mammoth: too close to call
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:06 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Utah has the slight edge in a game that could go either way.
The model projects EDM 3.0 - 3.3 UTA and gives the Mammoth a 55% chance to win. That is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Utah has the better underlying game. The Mammoth take more of the scoring chances, measured as expected goals, which are the goals a team's shot profile should produce. They also take more shot attempts, so expect Utah to spend more time pushing play into Edmonton's zone. The table below has the full season split.
Season Five-on-Five Numbers
| Metric | EDM | UTA |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 53.4% | 59.1% |
| Shot attempt share | 48.6% | 56.1% |
| PDO (shooting plus save percentage) | 1.074 | 1.013 |
Edmonton is the team running hot. Its PDO, which adds shooting and save percentage together, sits at 1.074, and that is the number to watch for regression.
In goal, D. Levi has let in 0.8 more goals than his shots should have allowed over 5 games. K. Vejmelka has stopped 0.6 more than expected over 7 games. Both have a save percentage of 89.8%, so the difference between them is in how their numbers compare to expectation, not in the raw save totals.
The verdict leans Utah. The Mammoth have the stronger underlying play, and Edmonton's luck is the variable most likely to decide a close one.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
UTA 55%
55%
UTA
Model favorite
45%
55%
EDM50UTA
UTA by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score EDM 3.0–3.3 UTA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
EDM← edge
edge →UTA
53.4%59.1%
48.6%56.1%
2.933.88
2.562.68
4.433.88
3.142.63
1.0741.013
UTA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.074 vs 1.013) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–8
EDM
5-1-1
+9 GD · 1d rest
UTA
6-2-0
+10 GD · 1d rest
1.074
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.013
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.1%
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.1% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.074 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 55%–45% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.1% 5v5 xG vs 53.4%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.074 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.1% 5v5 xG vs 53.4%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: D. Levi (-0.8 GSAx in 5 GP, 89.8% SV) vs K. Vejmelka (+0.6 GSAx in 7 GP, 89.8% SV).
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.074 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
EDM
vs UTA · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
D. Levi
1 day rest.875 last start58:05 played
Backup Tristan Jarry · -3.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic13:43
- F. Hallander10:22
- M. Joseph12:48
- A. Formenton13:17
- L. Draisaitl23:00
- K. Kapanen16:14
- O. Michaels12:02
- M. Jones11:16
- I. Howard10:22
- J. Samanski08:53
- V. Podkolzin22:13
- C. McDavid25:52
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard27:03
- C. Murphy19:24
- R. Shea22:16
- M. Ekholm22:34
- T. Emberson12:52
- S. Mukhamadullin13:58
UTA
vs EDM · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
K. Vejmelka
1 day rest.917 last start59:39 played
Backup Sebastian Cossa · -0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz19:15
- C. Keller16:55
- D. Guenther15:01
- V. Trocheck13:46
- J. McBain13:07
- B. Hayton15:01
- D. But10:47
- K. Yamamoto14:35
- L. Crouse16:39
- A. Lee14:01
- K. Stenlund13:58
- L. Cooley15:59
Defence · 6
- J. Marino21:06
- A. Peeke13:58
- D. Simashev12:08
- M. Weegar22:59
- N. Schmidt22:24
- M. Sergachev24:42
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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