WARNINGPIT
A. Silovs on a back-to-back
A. Silovs projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · PIT at VGK
The Golden Knights are the model's lean over the Penguins — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSat, Oct 17
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 17, 9:06 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Vegas, and the reason is how the Golden Knights have been playing, not how the scoreboard reads. They have been creating the better chances at five-on-five, and the lean rests on that. The open question is whether their finishing and goaltending will keep pace.
The model gives the Golden Knights a 58% chance to win. The projected score is PIT 3.0 - 3.5 VGK.
Vegas has owned the underlying play this season. Its share of expected goals at five-on-five is 56.6%. Pittsburgh's is 48.5%, and that gap is what the model is leaning on. Shot attempts point the same way with a thinner margin, and Vegas holds 52.9% of them. Pittsburgh is at 51.5%.
The number to distrust is PDO, the sum of a team's shooting and save percentages. Vegas sits at 1.023, which means it has been running hot on shooting and saves, and expect some regression. Pittsburgh is at 1.005. Luck tends to even out, so that gap is the one to watch.
Vegas is also the hotter team by points pace, at 7-2-0 over 9 games.
The goalies could decide it. A. Silovs is projected to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, so a backup start or tired legs is the first thing to check. Silovs is at -0.8 goals saved above expected through 5 games. The save percentage is 87.5%. C. Hart is at +2.4 goals saved above expected through 6 games, with a 91.1% save percentage.
The lean is real, but it depends on Vegas's finishing and goaltending holding up, and both are where the warning signs sit.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
VGK 58%
58%
VGK
Model favorite
42%
58%
PIT50VGK
VGK by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score PIT 3.0–3.5 VGK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
PIT← edge
edge →VGK
48.5%56.6%
51.5%52.9%
3.333.53
3.532.71
3.253.89
3.252.44
1.0051.023
VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.005 vs 1.023) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–9
PIT
3-4-1
+0 GD · 0d rest
VGK
7-2-0
+14 GD · 1d rest
1.005
PIT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.023
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Golden Knights own the underlying play
The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 56.6% 5v5 xG vs 48.5%.
WARNINGVGK
Regression watch: Golden Knights
The Golden Knights' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 56.6% 5v5 xG vs 48.5%.
Regression watch
- The Golden Knights' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 56.6% 5v5 xG vs 48.5%.
- Goalie matchup: A. Silovs (-0.8 GSAx in 5 GP, 87.5% SV) vs C. Hart (+2.4 GSAx in 6 GP, 91.1% SV).
- A. Silovs is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Golden Knights are the hotter team by points pace (7-2-0 over their 9 games so far).
- The Golden Knights' PDO is 1.023 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
PIT
vs COL · Fri, Oct 16
Expected in goal
A. Silovs
back-to-back.844 last start57:26 played
Backup Sergei Murashov · +2.2 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- N. Robertson11:01
- B. Rust18:38
- T. Novak15:16
- C. Dewar12:29
- E. Soderblom10:55
- V. Koivunen15:46
- B. Lizotte13:45
- A. Kuzmenko11:03
- R. Rakell18:51
- E. Malkin17:01
- B. Kindel14:57
- S. Crosby19:46
Defence · 6
- K. Korczak19:32
- S. Stastney15:24
- S. Girard19:52
- K. Letang19:22
- E. Karlsson20:57
- D. Carlile20:16
VGK
vs CGY · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
C. Hart
1 day rest.933 last start59:34 played
Backup Adin Hill · -0.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eichel15:16
- M. Gatcomb14:51
- B. Howden14:41
- T. Connelly14:59
- N. Dowd14:27
- R. Lavoie10:38
- B. Bowman18:15
- T. Hertl16:51
- I. Barbashev15:26
- M. Stone14:01
- W. Karlsson17:08
- M. Marner18:43
Defence · 6
- B. McNabb16:22
- R. Andersson20:06
- J. Lauzon20:45
- N. Hanifin18:24
- S. Theodore18:48
- D. Coghlan15:26
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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