WARNINGCBJ
J. Greaves on a back-to-back
J. Greaves projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · CBJ at MIN
The Wild are the model's lean over the Blue Jackets on the rest edge
The model's leanSun, Oct 18
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 18, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward the Wild, and the case begins with the schedule. Columbus is playing on no rest, while Minnesota has had time to recover. The Wild also own more of the underlying play, and the lean rests on that combination rather than on any single factor.
The model's projected score is 3.1 - 3.4 in Minnesota's favor. It gives the Wild a 55% chance to win. J. Greaves is projected to start for Columbus on the second night of a back-to-back, so the Blue Jackets have no rest behind him. Minnesota comes in on 2 days of rest.
Minnesota holds the edge in the two measures that track who controls play at five-on-five: expected goal share and shot attempts share. The table below has the figures, and the Wild lead both. Columbus leads only on the last line, shooting plus save percentage.
| Measure (season, five-on-five) | Blue Jackets | Wild |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goal share | 49.7% | 53.5% |
| Shot attempts share | 48.9% | 51.0% |
| Shooting plus save percentage | 1.011 | 1.000 |
The goalies point the same way. J. Greaves has played five games with a 90.5% save percentage. J. Wallstedt has been the stronger of the two, saving 5.6 more goals than his shots predicted across seven games. Watch for a backup start or a tired Greaves, the two ways the back-to-back could show up on the ice.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 6:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MIN 55%
55%
MIN
Model favorite
45%
55%
CBJ50MIN
MIN by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CBJ 3.1–3.4 MIN; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ← edge
edge →MIN
49.7%53.5%
48.9%51.0%
3.083.60
3.123.13
2.673.25
3.502.50
1.0111.000
MIN holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.011 vs 1.000) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 6–8
CBJ
3-3-0
-4 GD · 0d rest
MIN
5-2-1
+6 GD · 2d rest
1.011
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.000
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Wild own the underlying play
The Wild own the underlying play — 53.5% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
TACTICALMIN
Rest edge
The Wild come in on 2 days of rest; the other side on 0.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
TACTICALMIN
J. Wallstedt was beatable last time out
J. Wallstedt stopped just 84.6% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 53.5% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
Things to watch
- The Wild own the underlying play — 53.5% 5v5 xG vs 49.7%.
- Goalie matchup: J. Greaves (+1.0 GSAx in 5 GP, 90.5% SV) vs J. Wallstedt (+5.6 GSAx in 7 GP, 92.1% SV).
- J. Greaves is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Wild have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CBJ
vs NYR · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
J. Greaves
back-to-back1.000 last start62:43 played
Backup Cam Talbot · -2.5 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- C. Coyle21:24
- C. Sillinger15:18
- A. Fantilli23:31
- S. Monahan18:40
- M. Olivier16:41
- V. Nichushkin17:44
- D. Heinen06:36
- C. Garland13:24
- M. Knies21:11
- K. Johnson20:55
- L. Del Bel Belluz05:54
- R. Lomberg05:54
Defence · 6
- J. Christiansen13:33
- D. Mateychuk25:15
- Z. Werenski32:18
- E. Andrae05:23
- E. Gudbranson18:08
- D. Severson26:38
MIN
vs STL · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
2 days rest.846 last start59:49 played
Backup Calvin Pickard · -2.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink14:47
- M. Boldy24:51
- Y. Trenin12:49
- J. Eriksson Ek23:12
- T. Pitlick07:11
- B. Coleman17:37
- D. Yurov15:26
- R. Hartman13:48
- M. McCarron11:23
- M. Shabanov14:43
- R. Lorenz07:37
- K. Kaprizov22:52
Defence · 6
- Z. Bogosian14:51
- J. Brodin22:51
- M. Kiersted12:08
- Q. Hughes25:17
- D. Hunt16:27
- D. Spacek19:31
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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