WARNINGCAR
P. Kochetkov on a back-to-back
P. Kochetkov projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · CAR at CGY
The Hurricanes are the model's lean over the Flames — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSun, Oct 18
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 18, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Carolina, and the case starts with the underlying play. The Hurricanes control it, but there is a wrinkle in net: P. Kochetkov is projected to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, so a backup start or tired legs are both possible.
The model projects a 3.5-2.9 Carolina win, which gives the Hurricanes a 60% win probability. That is a lean rather than a lock.
Carolina is also the hotter side by points pace, at 7-1-1 over its 9 games. Calgary is underwater, at a -21 goal differential over 7 games.
The rest edge belongs to Calgary, which arrives on 2 days of rest to Carolina's 0.
The season five-on-five numbers back the Hurricanes on territory. Carolina owns expected goals at five-on-five, the clearest edge on the page, and it also leads in shot attempts, which the model reads as a territorial tilt.
| Metric | CAR | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 62.9% | 47.1% |
| Shot attempts share | 59.3% | 54.4% |
| PDO (shooting plus save percentage) | 0.975 | 0.901 |
PDO adds shooting and save percentage together, and both teams are running cold on it. That makes both due for positive regression, and Calgary's is the colder of the two.
In net, the goaltending edge belongs to P. Kochetkov. He carries a 91.2% save percentage over 5 games, and he has saved 2.2 more goals than his shots should have allowed. D. Wolf sits at 83.4% over the same 5 games, and has allowed 7.7 more goals than his shots should have. That gap is 9.9 goals this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 60%
60%
CAR
Model favorite
60%
40%
CAR50CGY
CAR by 20 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CAR 3.5–2.9 CGY; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CAR← edge
edge →CGY
62.9%47.1%
59.3%54.4%
4.043.02
2.383.40
3.782.00
2.335.00
0.9750.901
CAR holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.975 vs 0.901) says CAR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–9
CAR
7-1-1
+13 GD · 0d rest
CGY
1-6-0
-21 GD · 2d rest
0.975
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.901
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.9% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.3%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.3% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCGY
Regression watch: Flames
The Flames' PDO is 0.901 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.9% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flames' PDO is 0.901 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.975 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.9% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: P. Kochetkov (+2.2 GSAx in 5 GP, 91.2% SV) vs D. Wolf (-7.7 GSAx in 5 GP, 83.4% SV).
- P. Kochetkov has the GSAx edge — 9.9 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Hurricanes are the hotter team by points pace (7-1-1 over their 9 games so far).
- The Flames are underwater at -21 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
- The Flames' PDO is 0.901 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Flames have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CAR
vs WPG · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
P. Kochetkov
back-to-back.913 last start60:00 played
Backup Brandon Bussi · -3.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- S. Aho20:51
- L. Stankoven17:07
- N. Ehlers15:54
- W. Carrier14:50
- B. Nadeau15:17
- F. Unger Sörum09:20
- A. Svechnikov18:39
- J. Martinook13:46
- E. Robinson10:34
- J. Blake20:09
- M. Jankowski13:07
- J. Kotkaniemi10:00
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere15:47
- J. Chatfield20:28
- M. Reilly12:22
- K. Miller23:00
- S. Walker22:47
- J. Slavin22:02
CGY
vs VGK · Thu, Oct 15
Expected in goal
D. Wolf
2 days rest.818 last start60:00 played
Backup Devin Cooley · -4.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- M. Backlund18:41
- M. Frost15:45
- Y. Sharangovich12:03
- R. Strome13:48
- M. Coronato16:01
- J. Castagna10:39
- A. Klapka11:22
- A. Suniev14:21
- M. Tsyplakov09:48
- M. Pospisil13:40
- J. Farabee20:24
- M. Gridin13:40
Defence · 6
- K. Bahl21:58
- Z. Parekh17:25
- Z. Whitecloud21:24
- Y. Kuznetsov17:19
- J. Middleton19:14
- S. Nemec20:54
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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