TACTICALNSH
Rest edge
The Predators come in on 4 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Preview · NSH at BOS
Predators at Bruins: no daylight between these two
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model's projection ends 3.2 to 3.2, which is its way of saying it cannot separate these two teams. Both have a real case, and the numbers pull in opposite directions.
The Predators arrive with 4 days of rest. The Bruins have had 1 day, and that gap is the one clear edge on the board.
Boston drives the territory battle at 5-on-5. Over the season, the Bruins hold 47.9% of shot attempts, the better share of the two, so expect the play to tilt their way.
Nashville owns the quality side. Its share of expected goals, a measure of the value of the chances a team creates, is 48.3%.
Boston's combined shooting and save percentage is 1.057. That is running hot, so expect some regression.
In goal, J. Swayman is the stronger of the two. He sits at +9.0 goals saved above what his shots predicted over 8 games this season. J. Saros sits at -1.0 over 7 games, which puts J. Swayman 10.0 goals ahead of his counterpart.
Boston holds the territory and the better goaltender. Nashville holds the rest and the quality of chances. That split is why the model shrugs.
| Metric | Predators | Bruins |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 48.3% | 45.4% |
| Shot attempt share | 44.3% | 47.9% |
| Shooting-and-save total | 0.991 | 1.057 |
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NSH 50%
50%
NSH
Model favorite
50%
50%
NSH50BOS
NSH by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NSH 3.2–3.2 BOS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NSH← edge
edge →BOS
48.3%45.4%
44.3%47.9%
2.702.87
2.893.44
2.883.60
2.752.20
0.9911.057
BOS holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.991 vs 1.057) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–10
NSH
3-2-3
-1 GD · 4d rest
BOS
7-2-1
+14 GD · 1d rest
0.991
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.057
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Bruins drive Corsi at 47.9%
The Bruins drive Corsi at 47.9% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGBOS
Regression watch: Bruins
The Bruins' PDO is 1.057 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
No daylight between these two
Win probability splits 50%–50% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Bruins drive Corsi at 47.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.057 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Bruins drive Corsi at 47.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Saros (-1.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 90.6% SV) vs J. Swayman (+9.0 GSAx in 8 GP, 92.8% SV).
- J. Swayman has the GSAx edge — 10.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.057 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Predators have 3 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NSH
vs STL · Sat, Oct 17
Expected in goal
J. Saros
4 days rest.923 last start60:00 played
Backup Matt Murray · +0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- F. Forsberg19:14
- A. Kerfoot18:24
- J. Drury18:32
- N. Hoglander09:21
- R. Schaefer09:44
- V. Pinchuk04:01
- M. Wood09:42
- R. Colton11:28
- J. Marchessault15:37
- A. Edstrom17:25
- R. O'Reilly20:34
- S. Stamkos17:38
Defence · 6
- A. Wilsby22:06
- J. Struble19:36
- N. Hague18:14
- N. Perbix16:27
- R. Josi24:36
- B. Skjei17:43
BOS
vs DAL · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
J. Swayman
1 day rest.880 last start63:52 played
Backup Michael DiPietro · +2.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka19:18
- C. Mittelstadt14:58
- P. Zacha21:22
- E. Lindholm20:18
- M. Geekie16:59
- J. Hagens13:20
- M. Kastelic11:47
- M. Poitras09:01
- T. Jeannot09:05
- D. Pastrnak21:41
- M. Khusnutdinov14:26
- F. Minten17:11
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei15:35
- W. Borgen18:38
- H. Lindholm19:28
- F. Brunet16:37
- C. McAvoy27:04
- N. Zadorov20:48
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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