TACTICAL
The Rangers own the underlying play
The Rangers own the underlying play — 53.1% 5v5 xG vs 48.1%.
Preview · NYR at TOR
Rangers at Maple Leafs: a true toss-up
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:05 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a NYR 3.3 - 3.2 TOR game with the Rangers at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Rangers own the underlying play . The Rangers own the underlying play — 53.1% 5v5 xG vs 48.1%.
- Regression watch: Rangers. The Rangers' PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
- A true toss-up. Win probability splits 49%–51% — margins decide this one.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | NYR | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 53.1% | 48.1% |
| Corsi% | 46.3% | 46.2% |
| PDO | 1.021 | 0.987 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Rangers own the underlying play — 53.1% 5v5 xG vs 48.1%.
Regression Watch
- The Rangers' PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: D. Garand (+3.1 GSAx in 7 GP, 92.9% SV) vs A. Stolarz (-1.0 GSAx in 4 GP, 89.8% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NYR 51%
51%
NYR
Model favorite
51%
49%
NYR50TOR
NYR by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NYR 3.3–3.2 TOR; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NYR← edge
edge →TOR
53.1%48.1%
46.3%46.2%
3.293.19
2.913.43
3.003.45
2.183.09
1.0210.987
NYR holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.021 vs 0.987) says NYR has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NYR
7-2-1
+12 GD · 2d rest
TOR
5-3-2
+4 GD · 1d rest
1.021
NYR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.987
TOR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGNYR
Regression watch: Rangers
The Rangers' PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 49%–51% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Rangers own the underlying play — 53.1% 5v5 xG vs 48.1%.
Regression watch
- The Rangers' PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Rangers own the underlying play — 53.1% 5v5 xG vs 48.1%.
- Goalie matchup: D. Garand (+3.1 GSAx in 7 GP, 92.9% SV) vs A. Stolarz (-1.0 GSAx in 4 GP, 89.8% SV).
- The Rangers' PDO is 1.021 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NYR
vs ANA · Mon, Oct 19
Expected in goal
D. Garand
2 days rest.935 last start60:00 played
Backup Igor Shesterkin · +6.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Miller19:09
- A. Lafrenière17:00
- T. Raddysh10:01
- P. Dorofeyev17:57
- E. Tolvanen13:49
- T. Kartye14:00
- O. Bjorkstrand12:08
- J. Dowling08:56
- N. Laba15:08
- W. Cuylle17:04
- M. Zibanejad18:42
- G. Perreault15:40
Defence · 6
- B. Schneider19:01
- S. Durzi17:21
- A. Smits15:58
- A. Fox21:48
- M. Pettersson19:02
- V. Gavrikov21:16
TOR
vs CBJ · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
A. Stolarz
1 day rest.947 last start60:00 played
Backup Sergei Bobrovsky · +3.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Sissons14:23
- Z. MacEwen05:16
- N. Paul16:50
- B. Duhaime13:35
- A. Matthews17:06
- E. Cowan13:38
- V. Lettieri08:47
- T. Blueger16:03
- K. Marchenko19:17
- W. Nylander17:56
- G. McKenna12:58
- J. Roslovic15:42
Defence · 6
- J. McCabe04:15
- T. Stecher26:25
- D. Raddysh20:29
- M. Rielly22:46
- M. Rifai19:14
- O. Ekman-Larsson23:20
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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