WARNINGOTT
L. Ullmark on a back-to-back
L. Ullmark projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · SJS at OTT
The Senators are the model's lean over the Sharks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Ottawa, but the lean comes with a warning: luck is doing some of the work on both sides.
The projection is a 3.5 to 2.8 Ottawa win, which gives the Senators a 61% chance to win.
Ottawa's edge is in the underlying play. At 5-on-5, the Senators hold 52.1% of the expected goals, against 43.1% for San Jose. Expected goals measure how dangerous the shots were, not just how many there were. The gap narrows on shot attempts, where San Jose sits at 46.6% and Ottawa at 45.2%, so the volume of shooting is close to even.
The Sharks arrive underwater, with a goal differential of -8 over their last 10 games.
The bigger flag is luck. Ottawa's combined shooting and save percentage is 1.032, a level that is running hot and should expect some regression. San Jose sits at 0.960, which is running cold and due for positive regression.
In goal, A. Nedeljkovic has stopped 3.1 more goals than his workload should have allowed in 4 games, with a 91.7% save percentage. L. Ullmark is the stronger case, at 8.0 goals better than expected over 8 games, with a 94.5% save percentage.
The wrinkle is Ullmark's schedule. He is projected to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 61%
61%
OTT
Model favorite
39%
61%
SJS50OTT
OTT by 22 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score SJS 2.8–3.5 OTT; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →OTT
43.1%52.1%
46.6%45.2%
2.762.95
3.642.71
2.602.70
3.402.40
0.9601.032
OTT holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.960 vs 1.032) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
SJS
5-4-1
-8 GD · 1d rest
OTT
7-3-0
+5 GD · 0d rest
0.960
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.032
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Senators own the underlying play
The Senators own the underlying play — 52.1% 5v5 xG vs 43.1%.
TACTICALOTT
The model's clear lean
The Senators project at 61% win probability.
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.032 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Senators own the underlying play — 52.1% 5v5 xG vs 43.1%.
Regression watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.032 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.960 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Senators own the underlying play — 52.1% 5v5 xG vs 43.1%.
- Goalie matchup: A. Nedeljkovic (+3.1 GSAx in 4 GP, 91.7% SV) vs L. Ullmark (+8.0 GSAx in 8 GP, 94.5% SV).
- L. Ullmark is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Sharks are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.032 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SJS
vs MTL · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
A. Nedeljkovic
1 day rest.912 last start62:13 played
Backup Yaroslav Askarov · -0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith18:50
- T. Dellandrea11:37
- B. Goodrow11:32
- M. Marchment15:06
- I. Stenberg17:44
- K. Sherwood16:14
- C. Graf15:50
- Z. Ostapchuk10:51
- M. Celebrini23:07
- T. Toffoli12:18
- M. Misa14:09
- I. Chernyshov17:02
Defence · 6
- N. Allan16:52
- S. Dickinson20:15
- M. Kesselring20:31
- D. Orlov17:33
- D. Nurse20:20
- J. Trouba23:08
OTT
vs FLA · Wed, Oct 21
Expected in goal
L. Ullmark
back-to-back.944 last start43:35 played
L. Ullmark started last game and was relieved by S. Ersson (16:25 of it).
Backup Samuel Ersson · -4.6 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto20:31
- T. Stützle19:41
- D. Batherson17:41
- F. Zetterlund12:45
- N. Cousins08:03
- M. Amadio14:48
- D. Cozens18:24
- C. Giroux13:52
- S. Halliday14:45
- W. Foegele14:31
- H. Hodgson06:57
- R. Greig17:07
Defence · 6
- A. Zub17:05
- J. Spence18:58
- C. Yakemchuk18:44
- N. Matinpalo13:13
- T. Kleven22:08
- J. Sanderson22:36
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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