TACTICAL
The Devils own the underlying play
The Devils own the underlying play — 57.4% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.
Preview · ANA at NJD
The Devils are the model's lean over the Ducks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:05 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a ANA 3.1 - 3.5 NJD game with the Devils at 57% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Devils own the underlying play . The Devils own the underlying play — 57.4% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 60.4% . The Devils drive Corsi at 60.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Devils. The Devils' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | ANA | NJD |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 47.5% | 57.4% |
| Corsi% | 48.1% | 60.4% |
| PDO | 0.981 | 0.969 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Devils own the underlying play — 57.4% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 60.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Devils' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Ducks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: L. Dostal (-0.4 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.1% SV) vs J. Allen (-4.1 GSAx in 6 GP, 88.3% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NJD 57%
57%
NJD
Model favorite
43%
57%
ANA50NJD
NJD by 14 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score ANA 3.1–3.5 NJD; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
ANA← edge
edge →NJD
47.5%57.4%
48.1%60.4%
2.973.70
3.282.74
2.893.22
3.223.33
0.9810.969
NJD holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.981 vs 0.969) says ANA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 9
ANA
4-5-0
-3 GD · 1d rest
NJD
5-4-0
-1 GD · 1d rest
0.981
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.969
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 60.4%
The Devils drive Corsi at 60.4% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGNJD
Regression watch: Devils
The Devils' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGANA
Regression watch: Ducks
The Ducks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Devils own the underlying play — 57.4% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 60.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Devils' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Ducks' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils own the underlying play — 57.4% 5v5 xG vs 47.5%.
- The Devils drive Corsi at 60.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: L. Dostal (-0.4 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.1% SV) vs J. Allen (-4.1 GSAx in 6 GP, 88.3% SV).
- The Devils' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
ANA
vs NYI · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
L. Dostal
1 day rest.880 last start57:19 played
Backup Ville Husso · +0.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Colangelo10:43
- N. Nesterenko10:35
- A. Killorn15:45
- A. Greer12:09
- J. Malott11:41
- T. Washe14:35
- B. Sennecke24:44
- C. Gauthier17:28
- M. Granlund20:35
- F. Vatrano10:12
- L. Carlsson20:44
- R. McQueen10:31
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe27:55
- D. Helleson19:25
- N. Warren15:36
- T. Hinds22:43
- T. Luneau20:09
- P. Mintyukov10:26
NJD
vs COL · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
J. Allen
1 day rest.912 last start60:00 played
Backup Nico Daws · -1.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Glass13:17
- N. Hischier18:37
- C. Brown13:54
- E. Rodrigues15:18
- T. Meier16:09
- A. Mantha15:00
- J. Bratt13:50
- J. Boqvist11:21
- L. Evangelista16:54
- A. Gritsyuk11:24
- J. Hughes16:55
- D. Mercer16:38
Defence · 6
- D. Hamilton21:00
- J. Kovacevic16:13
- B. Pesce20:54
- L. Hughes23:07
- D. Chisholm15:53
- J. Siegenthaler21:36
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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