WARNINGFLA
A. Schmid on a back-to-back
A. Schmid projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · FLA at PIT
Panthers at Penguins: no daylight between these two
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:05 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a FLA 3.3 - 3.3 PIT game with the Penguins at 50% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- A. Schmid on a back-to-back. A. Schmid projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
- Rest edge. The Penguins come in on 2 days of rest; the other side on 0.
- The Panthers own the underlying play . The Panthers own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.9%.
Form Check
- The Panthers are the hotter team by points pace (5-3-2 over their last 10).
- The Penguins are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | FLA | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 54.0% | 47.9% |
| Corsi% | 56.4% | 50.8% |
| PDO | 0.976 | 0.983 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Panthers own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.9%.
- The Panthers drive Corsi at 56.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Penguins' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Panthers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Rest edge. The Penguins come in on 2 days of rest; the Panthers on 0 days.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: A. Schmid (-3.5 GSAx in 5 GP, 86.7% SV) vs A. Silovs (-2.2 GSAx in 6 GP, 86.6% SV).
- A. Schmid is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
PIT 50%
50%
PIT
Model favorite
50%
50%
FLA50PIT
PIT by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score FLA 3.3–3.3 PIT; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
FLA← edge
edge →PIT
54.0%47.9%
56.4%50.8%
3.273.15
2.793.43
3.103.20
3.003.70
0.9760.983
FLA holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.976 vs 0.983) says PIT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
FLA
5-3-2
+1 GD · 0d rest
PIT
3-6-1
-5 GD · 2d rest
0.976
FLA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.983
PIT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Panthers own the underlying play
The Panthers own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.9%.
TACTICAL
The Panthers drive Corsi at 56.4%
The Panthers drive Corsi at 56.4% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGPIT
Regression watch: Penguins
The Penguins' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Panthers own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.9%.
- The Panthers drive Corsi at 56.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Penguins' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Panthers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Panthers own the underlying play — 54.0% 5v5 xG vs 47.9%.
- The Panthers drive Corsi at 56.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: A. Schmid (-3.5 GSAx in 5 GP, 86.7% SV) vs A. Silovs (-2.2 GSAx in 6 GP, 86.6% SV).
- A. Schmid is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Panthers are the hotter team by points pace (5-3-2 over their last 10).
- The Penguins are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Penguins' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Penguins have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
FLA
vs OTT · Wed, Oct 21
Expected in goal
A. Schmid
back-to-back.833 last start60:00 played
Backup Jacob Markstrom · +0.6 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- B. Tkachuk13:13
- S. Bennett16:55
- S. Reinhart15:54
- B. Imama07:19
- A. Lundell19:00
- M. Tkachuk17:29
- L. Eller17:20
- G. Hathaway09:57
- C. Verhaeghe16:55
- E. Luostarinen17:56
- C. Schwindt07:40
- S. Vilmanis11:48
Defence · 6
- S. Jones21:09
- A. Ekblad19:06
- R. Gudas17:03
- D. Kulikov16:25
- G. Forsling22:26
- N. Mikkola19:43
PIT
vs UTA · Mon, Oct 19
Expected in goal
A. Silovs
2 days rest.828 last start58:44 played
Backup Sergei Murashov · -0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Robertson13:12
- B. Rust09:32
- T. Novak13:03
- C. Dewar13:13
- V. Koivunen13:17
- B. Lizotte11:56
- E. Chinakhov15:32
- A. Kuzmenko14:19
- R. Rakell19:00
- E. Malkin16:34
- B. Kindel18:53
- S. Crosby18:31
Defence · 6
- K. Korczak16:27
- I. Solovyov15:52
- S. Stastney21:06
- K. Letang21:55
- E. Karlsson27:40
- D. Carlile16:05
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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