WARNINGNYI
Regression watch: Islanders
The Islanders' PDO is 1.045 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Preview · LAK at NYI
Kings at Islanders: a true toss-up
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:11 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a LAK 3.1 - 3.1 NYI game with the Kings at 50% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- Regression watch: Islanders. The Islanders' PDO is 1.045 — running hot, expect some regression.
- Regression watch: Kings. The Kings' PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- A true toss-up. Win probability splits 50%–50% — margins decide this one.
Form Check
- The Islanders are the hotter team by points pace (5-3-1 over their 9 games so far).
- The Kings are underwater at -10 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | LAK | NYI |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 50.2% | 48.8% |
| Corsi% | 50.7% | 52.6% |
| PDO | 0.962 | 1.045 |
Regression Watch
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.045 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Kings' PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: D. Kuemper (-4.0 GSAx in 5 GP, 86.9% SV) vs I. Sorokin (+6.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 93.4% SV).
- I. Sorokin has the GSAx edge — 10.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
LAK 50%
50%
LAK
Model favorite
50%
50%
LAK50NYI
LAK by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score LAK 3.1–3.1 NYI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
LAK← edge
edge →NYI
50.2%48.8%
50.7%52.6%
2.772.85
2.742.99
2.433.00
3.862.11
0.9621.045
NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.962 vs 1.045) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 7–9
LAK
1-4-2
-10 GD · 1d rest
NYI
5-3-1
+7 GD · 1d rest
0.962
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.045
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGLAK
Regression watch: Kings
The Kings' PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 50%–50% — margins decide this one.
Regression watch
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.045 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Kings' PDO is 0.962 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: D. Kuemper (-4.0 GSAx in 5 GP, 86.9% SV) vs I. Sorokin (+6.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 93.4% SV).
- I. Sorokin has the GSAx edge — 10.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Islanders are the hotter team by points pace (5-3-1 over their 9 games so far).
- The Kings are underwater at -10 goal differential over their 7 games so far.
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.045 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
LAK
vs WSH · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
D. Kuemper
1 day rest.938 last start60:00 played
Backup Anton Forsberg · -2.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Kempe18:18
- A. Panarin16:50
- T. Moore18:42
- A. Laferriere20:37
- S. Laughton15:25
- M. Zuccarello15:55
- J. Armia13:36
- A. Lee12:09
- Q. Byfield02:44
- E. Haula16:49
- S. Helenius10:27
- C. Perry12:39
Defence · 6
- B. Dumoulin21:30
- J. Edmundson20:53
- D. Doughty21:18
- M. Anderson22:11
- E. Gustafsson13:52
- B. Clarke18:24
NYI
vs ANA · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
I. Sorokin
1 day rest.882 last start60:00 played
Backup Semyon Varlamov · +3.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Schenn16:03
- A. Duclair13:47
- B. Horvat21:35
- K. Palmieri19:14
- M. Chaffee09:13
- K. MacLean09:56
- V. Eklund12:55
- J. Pageau17:16
- E. Heineman14:28
- C. Cizikas11:11
- O. Palat14:47
- S. Holmstrom20:11
Defence · 6
- A. Pelech20:51
- M. Kessel13:57
- R. Pulock19:40
- L. Stanley20:00
- M. Schaefer26:20
- T. DeAngelo14:36
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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