TACTICAL
The Golden Knights own the underlying play
The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 56.1% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
Preview · VGK at STL
Golden Knights at Blues: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:11 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a VGK 3.1 - 2.9 STL game with the Golden Knights at 54% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play. The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 56.1% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
- Regression watch: Blues. The Blues' PDO is 0.972 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- A genuine coin flip. Win probability splits 46%–54% — margins decide this one.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | VGK | STL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 56.1% | 49.8% |
| Corsi% | 51.9% | 51.0% |
| PDO | 1.012 | 0.972 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 56.1% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
Regression Watch
- The Blues' PDO is 0.972 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: C. Hart (-1.6 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.8% SV) vs J. Hofer (+4.0 GSAx in 6 GP, 91.9% SV).
- J. Hofer has the GSAx edge — 5.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
VGK 54%
54%
VGK
Model favorite
54%
46%
VGK50STL
VGK by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score VGK 3.1–2.9 STL; 17% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
VGK← edge
edge →STL
56.1%49.8%
51.9%51.0%
3.432.81
2.692.83
3.913.22
2.733.22
1.0120.972
VGK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.012 vs 0.972) says VGK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 9–10
VGK
7-3-0
+11 GD · 1d rest
STL
4-4-1
+0 GD · 1d rest
1.012
VGK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.972
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.972 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 46%–54% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALVGK
C. Hart was beatable last time out
C. Hart stopped just 71.4% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 56.1% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
Regression watch
- The Blues' PDO is 0.972 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 56.1% 5v5 xG vs 49.8%.
- Goalie matchup: C. Hart (-1.6 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.8% SV) vs J. Hofer (+4.0 GSAx in 6 GP, 91.9% SV).
- J. Hofer has the GSAx edge — 5.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Blues' PDO is 0.972 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
VGK
vs TBL · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
C. Hart
1 day rest.714 last start59:46 played
Backup Adin Hill · +0.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eichel19:35
- M. Gatcomb12:46
- B. Howden14:50
- T. Connelly16:17
- N. Dowd12:13
- R. Lavoie11:57
- B. Bowman12:05
- T. Hertl17:11
- I. Barbashev16:07
- M. Stone18:29
- W. Karlsson16:00
- M. Marner17:27
Defence · 6
- B. McNabb17:46
- R. Andersson19:25
- J. Lauzon17:52
- N. Hanifin19:16
- S. Theodore20:36
- D. Coghlan15:43
STL
vs WPG · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
1 day rest.970 last start59:37 played
Backup Jordan Binnington · -7.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- D. Dvorsky10:08
- R. Thomas20:52
- J. Snuggerud19:37
- P. Suter14:13
- O. Stenberg09:08
- J. Berggren11:56
- A. Kaskimaki11:57
- J. Neighbours16:30
- C. McMichael14:35
- D. Holloway17:25
- M. McTavish14:40
- P. Buchnevich19:36
Defence · 6
- P. Broberg23:41
- C. Fowler21:04
- B. Carlo17:55
- A. Jiricek11:50
- C. Parayko21:42
- J. Barron17:34
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going