TACTICAL
The Stars own the underlying play
The Stars own the underlying play — 55.6% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
Preview · WPG at DAL
The Stars are the model's lean over the Jets — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:07 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Dallas is the model's lean over Winnipeg, and the case starts with how the Stars play at five-on-five rather than with anything on the scoreboard.
The model has Dallas winning it 3.3 goals to 2.9. That projection gives the Stars a 56% chance to win.
Dallas owns the underlying play. It takes 55.6% of the expected goals at five-on-five, a measure of the quality of chances each team creates. Winnipeg sits at an even 50.0%. The same edge shows up in shot attempts, where Dallas holds 51.0% of the total.
The caveat is puck luck. The combined shooting and save percentage, known as PDO, is 1.043 for Dallas, which is running hot. Some of that heat should fade, so expect some regression.
In goal, the comparison is J. Oettinger against S. Skinner. J. Oettinger's save percentage is 94.5% through seven games, and he has kept out 8.1 more goals than his workload should have allowed. S. Skinner's save percentage is 91.0% through six games, and he has kept out 2.1 more goals than his workload should have allowed. Over the season, that puts J. Oettinger 6.0 goals ahead of his counterpart.
The underlying play is the strongest part of the case, and the puck luck is the part most likely to change it.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DAL 56%
56%
DAL
Model favorite
44%
56%
WPG50DAL
DAL by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score WPG 2.9–3.3 DAL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
WPG← edge
edge →DAL
50.0%55.6%
48.2%51.0%
3.123.10
3.132.48
2.672.44
2.891.56
1.0091.043
DAL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.009 vs 1.043) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 9
WPG
4-3-2
-2 GD · 1d rest
DAL
5-3-1
+8 GD · 1d rest
1.009
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.043
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGDAL
Regression watch: Stars
The Stars' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 55.6% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
Regression watch
- The Stars' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Stars own the underlying play — 55.6% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
- Goalie matchup: S. Skinner (+2.1 GSAx in 6 GP, 91.0% SV) vs J. Oettinger (+8.1 GSAx in 7 GP, 94.5% SV).
- J. Oettinger has the GSAx edge — 6.0 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Stars' PDO is 1.043 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
WPG
vs STL · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
S. Skinner
1 day rest.929 last start58:03 played
Backup Clay Stevenson · -0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Iafallo13:03
- G. Vilardi17:49
- A. Lowry14:50
- I. Rosen13:33
- M. Barron13:01
- C. Koepke09:45
- M. Scheifele20:56
- V. Björck14:36
- N. Niederreiter12:02
- K. Connor21:43
- C. Perfetti19:47
- B. Lambert06:48
Defence · 6
- D. DeMelo20:19
- N. Pionk26:50
- H. Fleury17:53
- M. Ferraro19:42
- D. Samberg22:32
- T. Bauer08:26
DAL
vs BOS · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
1 day rest.900 last start63:24 played
Backup Casey DeSmith · +0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Faksa10:58
- J. Benn13:23
- C. Blackwell10:07
- S. Steel13:57
- J. Robertson23:34
- J. Kiviranta10:15
- R. Hintz17:51
- A. Hyry16:22
- J. Hryckowian12:40
- W. Johnston20:41
- T. Seguin12:34
- M. Rantanen22:12
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen29:33
- N. Lundkvist15:43
- L. Bichsel16:29
- K. Capobianco13:32
- T. Harley27:50
- T. Myers17:47
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going