TACTICAL
The Wild own the underlying play
The Wild own the underlying play — 56.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.1%.
Preview · MIN at CGY
The Wild are the model's lean over the Flames — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:11 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a MIN 3.5 - 3.1 CGY game with the Wild at 55% win probability.
Keys to the game
- Rest edge. The Flames come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 1.
- The Wild own the underlying play . The Wild own the underlying play — 56.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.1%.
- Regression watch: Flames. The Flames' PDO is 0.917 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Wild are the hotter team by points pace (6-2-2 over their last 10).
- The Flames are underwater at -20 goal differential over their 8 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | MIN | CGY |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 56.5% | 46.1% |
| Corsi% | 52.2% | 52.6% |
| PDO | 1.005 | 0.917 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 56.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.1%.
Regression Watch
- The Flames' PDO is 0.917 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Rest edge. The Flames come in on 3 days of rest; the Wild on 1 day.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: J. Wallstedt (+5.4 GSAx in 9 GP, 91.5% SV) vs D. Cooley (-1.7 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.8% SV).
- J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge — 7.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MIN 55%
55%
MIN
Model favorite
55%
45%
MIN50CGY
MIN by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score MIN 3.5–3.1 CGY; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →CGY
56.5%46.1%
52.2%52.6%
3.913.02
3.013.53
3.102.13
2.504.63
1.0050.917
MIN holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.005 vs 0.917) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 8–10
MIN
6-2-2
+6 GD · 1d rest
CGY
2-6-0
-20 GD · 3d rest
1.005
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.917
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGCGY
Regression watch: Flames
The Flames' PDO is 0.917 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALCGY
Rest edge
The Flames come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Where the edges live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 56.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.1%.
Regression watch
- The Flames' PDO is 0.917 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Wild own the underlying play — 56.5% 5v5 xG vs 46.1%.
- Goalie matchup: J. Wallstedt (+5.4 GSAx in 9 GP, 91.5% SV) vs D. Cooley (-1.7 GSAx in 3 GP, 86.8% SV).
- J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge — 7.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Wild are the hotter team by points pace (6-2-2 over their last 10).
- The Flames are underwater at -20 goal differential over their 8 games so far.
- The Flames' PDO is 0.917 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Flames have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MIN
vs EDM · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
1 day rest.875 last start63:32 played
Backup Calvin Pickard · -2.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink13:44
- M. Boldy22:31
- Y. Trenin14:17
- J. Eriksson Ek22:45
- T. Pitlick05:16
- B. Coleman17:36
- D. Yurov14:55
- R. Hartman12:29
- M. McCarron13:36
- M. Shabanov14:26
- N. Sturm10:10
- K. Kaprizov21:49
Defence · 6
- Z. Bogosian21:16
- J. Brodin28:13
- M. Kiersted10:54
- Q. Hughes31:18
- D. Hunt18:02
- D. Spacek10:29
CGY
vs CAR · Sun, Oct 18
Expected in goal
D. Cooley
3 days rest.944 last start59:47 played
Backup Dustin Wolf · -7.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- M. Backlund13:32
- M. Frost15:52
- Y. Sharangovich16:42
- R. Strome13:41
- M. Coronato19:31
- J. Castagna15:52
- A. Klapka12:19
- A. Suniev15:41
- M. Pospisil13:20
- B. Othmann10:54
- J. Farabee19:45
- M. Gridin15:51
Defence · 6
- K. Bahl21:01
- Z. Parekh16:49
- Z. Whitecloud19:07
- Y. Kuznetsov16:06
- J. Middleton18:13
- S. Nemec21:57
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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