TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.3% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
Preview · CAR at EDM
The Hurricanes are the model's lean over the Oilers — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:12 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward Carolina, and the case rests on who has controlled play at five-on-five this season. Edmonton's results have run ahead of its territory, and that gap is the main risk to the pick.
Carolina owns the underlying play. Its expected goals share at five-on-five is 63.3%, against 50.0% for Edmonton, which means the Hurricanes have created the better chances over the season. The shot-attempt picture points the same way. Carolina controls 59.6% of attempts, so expect the game to tilt toward the Hurricanes' end of the ice.
Luck is the bigger swing factor. PDO, a gauge of shooting and save luck, has Edmonton at 1.066, a level the draft calls running hot and due for some regression. Carolina sits at 0.983, which is running cold and points toward positive regression for the Hurricanes.
The model projects Carolina to score 3.5 goals to Edmonton's 3.1. That gives the Hurricanes a 56% win probability, a lean rather than a lock.
The goaltending is close to even. P. Kochetkov has a save percentage of 89.9% over six games and sits at +1.0 goals saved above expected. D. Levi is at 89.8% over the same six games, with +2.1 goals saved above expected. Levi's number is the better one, but the gap is small enough that the crease will not decide this game on its own.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
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The game, as it happens
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Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 56%
56%
CAR
Model favorite
56%
44%
CAR50EDM
CAR by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score CAR 3.5–3.1 EDM; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CAR← edge
edge →EDM
63.3%50.0%
59.6%47.8%
4.163.01
2.413.00
3.824.56
2.453.00
0.9831.066
CAR holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.983 vs 1.066) says EDM has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 9–10
CAR
8-2-0
+16 GD · 1d rest
EDM
7-1-1
+14 GD · 1d rest
0.983
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.066
EDM PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.6%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.6% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGEDM
Regression watch: Oilers
The Oilers' PDO is 1.066 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGCAR
Regression watch: Hurricanes
The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.3% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.066 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Hurricanes' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 63.3% 5v5 xG vs 50.0%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: P. Kochetkov (+1.0 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.9% SV) vs D. Levi (+2.1 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.8% SV).
- The Oilers' PDO is 1.066 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CAR
vs VAN · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
P. Kochetkov
1 day rest.824 last start60:00 played
Backup Brandon Bussi · -3.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Aho20:01
- L. Stankoven18:57
- N. Ehlers17:10
- W. Carrier13:05
- B. Nadeau14:09
- F. Unger Sörum12:45
- A. Svechnikov19:04
- N. Deslauriers10:44
- J. Martinook12:35
- E. Robinson13:14
- J. Blake20:30
- J. Kotkaniemi14:14
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere17:40
- J. Chatfield20:39
- J. Välimäki11:29
- K. Miller21:49
- S. Walker20:11
- J. Slavin18:51
EDM
vs MIN · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
D. Levi
1 day rest.900 last start63:28 played
Backup Tristan Jarry · -2.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- T. Frederic07:37
- Z. Hyman23:07
- F. Hallander06:55
- M. Joseph12:28
- A. Formenton13:22
- L. Draisaitl24:06
- C. Dach15:25
- K. Kapanen19:18
- O. Michaels13:13
- I. Howard07:41
- V. Podkolzin19:20
- C. McDavid25:31
Defence · 6
- E. Bouchard28:17
- C. Murphy21:12
- R. Shea23:50
- M. Ekholm20:36
- T. Emberson10:24
- J. Walman13:51
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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