TACTICAL
The Mammoth own the underlying play
The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.1% 5v5 xG vs 46.8%.
Preview · UTA at SEA
The Mammoth are the model's lean over the Kraken — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:13 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model favors the Mammoth, and the reason has more to do with how the game has gone than with who has finished the chances. The projected score is 3.4-3.0, which is close, so the edge has to come from somewhere other than the scoreboard.
The Mammoth own the underlying play. They hold 59.1% of five-on-five expected goals, which measures the quality-weighted chances a team creates. Shot attempts point the same way, so expect the game to tilt toward Utah's end of the ice.
Seattle's best argument is luck. The Kraken's PDO, the sum of on-ice shooting and save percentage, sits at 1.050. That is running hot, and some regression should be expected.
The season numbers at five-on-five, side by side:
| Metric | Mammoth | Kraken |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 59.1% | 46.8% |
| Shot attempts share | 56.8% | 43.8% |
| PDO | 0.994 | 1.050 |
In goal, S. Cossa is the concern. He sits at -3.1 goals saved above what his shots should have allowed over 4 games. His save percentage is 82.0% across those same games.
P. Grubauer is the counterweight. He sits at +1.2 goals saved above what his shots should have allowed over 6 games. His save percentage is 90.4%.
The lean is real but not comfortable. Utah's territorial edge is the stronger case, and Seattle's hot shooting and save numbers are the reason it is not a runaway.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
UTA 56%
56%
UTA
Model favorite
56%
44%
UTA50SEA
UTA by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score UTA 3.4–3.0 SEA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
UTA← edge
edge →SEA
59.1%46.8%
56.8%43.8%
3.762.95
2.603.35
3.803.70
3.103.40
0.9941.050
UTA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.994 vs 1.050) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
UTA
7-3-0
+7 GD · 2d rest
SEA
6-3-1
+5 GD · 1d rest
0.994
UTA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.050
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.8%
The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.8% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSEA
Regression watch: Kraken
The Kraken's PDO is 1.050 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALUTA
S. Cossa was beatable last time out
S. Cossa stopped just 78.9% in his last start.
Where the edges live
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.1% 5v5 xG vs 46.8%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.050 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Mammoth own the underlying play — 59.1% 5v5 xG vs 46.8%.
- The Mammoth drive Corsi at 56.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Cossa (-3.1 GSAx in 4 GP, 82.0% SV) vs P. Grubauer (+1.2 GSAx in 6 GP, 90.4% SV).
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.050 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
UTA
vs PIT · Mon, Oct 19
Expected in goal
S. Cossa
2 days rest.789 last start60:00 played
Backup Karel Vejmelka · -2.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- N. Schmaltz17:41
- C. Keller19:03
- D. Guenther15:48
- V. Trocheck14:58
- J. McBain12:14
- B. Hayton14:14
- D. But12:06
- K. Yamamoto14:03
- L. Crouse15:51
- A. Lee13:55
- K. Stenlund13:43
- L. Cooley16:29
Defence · 6
- A. Peeke18:10
- D. Simashev15:42
- M. Weegar23:59
- N. DeSimone15:39
- N. Schmidt18:31
- M. Sergachev24:54
SEA
vs DET · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
P. Grubauer
1 day rest.875 last start64:48 played
Backup Joey Daccord · -2.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eberle15:59
- C. Stephenson20:04
- M. Beniers17:38
- M. Samoskevich15:45
- J. McCann17:05
- R. Winterton12:43
- B. Catton15:07
- S. Wright13:17
- B. Meyers13:34
- B. McMann17:42
- K. Kakko12:36
- F. Gaudreau16:01
Defence · 6
- A. Larsson22:20
- J. Mahura11:10
- V. Dunn26:37
- R. Evans22:34
- V. Ottavainen08:45
- B. Montour30:44
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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