WARNINGVAN
Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season
Kevin Lankinen: -12.8 GSAx over 7 games.
Shoot from everywhere — volume beats a cold crease.
Preview · DET at VAN
The Red Wings are the model's lean over the Canucks on the underlying numbers
The model's leanThu, Oct 22
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 22, 9:23 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a DET 3.4 - 3.0 VAN game with the Red Wings at 56% win probability.
Keys to the game
- Kevin Lankinen has leaked goals all season. Kevin Lankinen: -12.8 GSAx over 7 games.
- The Red Wings own the underlying play. The Red Wings own the underlying play — 49.4% 5v5 xG vs 38.1%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.8%. The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Form Check
- The Red Wings are the hotter team by points pace (3-3-3 over their 9 games so far).
- The Canucks are underwater at -19 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Red Wings are underwater at -5 goal differential over their 9 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | DET | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 49.4% | 38.1% |
| Corsi% | 51.8% | 41.5% |
| PDO | 0.993 | 1.002 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 49.4% 5v5 xG vs 38.1%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: D. Tarasov (+4.4 GSAx in 4 GP, 94.0% SV) vs L. Meriläinen (+0.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 91.7% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DET 56%
56%
DET
Model favorite
56%
44%
DET50VAN
DET by 12 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score DET 3.4–3.0 VAN; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
DET← edge
edge →VAN
49.4%38.1%
51.8%41.5%
3.212.34
3.293.80
2.443.00
2.894.64
0.9931.002
DET holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 1.002) says VAN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 9–10
DET
3-3-3
-5 GD · 1d rest
VAN
1-8-1
-19 GD · 1d rest
0.993
DET PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.002
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Red Wings own the underlying play
The Red Wings own the underlying play — 49.4% 5v5 xG vs 38.1%.
TACTICAL
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.8%
The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Where the edges live
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 49.4% 5v5 xG vs 38.1%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Red Wings own the underlying play — 49.4% 5v5 xG vs 38.1%.
- The Red Wings drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: D. Tarasov (+4.4 GSAx in 4 GP, 94.0% SV) vs L. Meriläinen (+0.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 91.7% SV).
- The Red Wings are the hotter team by points pace (3-3-3 over their 9 games so far).
- The Canucks are underwater at -19 goal differential over their last 10.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
DET
vs SEA · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
D. Tarasov
1 day rest.889 last start62:58 played
Backup John Gibson · -1.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- S. Dries08:22
- A. Copp15:27
- L. Raymond24:08
- M. Rasmussen15:49
- M. Brandsegg-Nygård15:59
- V. Arvidsson20:49
- C. Mazur13:07
- K. Kolesar08:51
- E. Finnie23:20
- D. Larkin23:02
- A. DeBrincat23:49
Defence · 7
- B. Chiarot19:43
- A. Johansson13:28
- A. Englund11:26
- A. Johansson12:16
- A. Sandin-Pellikka14:35
- M. Seider28:28
- J. Faulk18:42
VAN
vs CAR · Tue, Oct 20
Expected in goal
L. Meriläinen
1 day rest.884 last start59:11 played
Backup Kevin Lankinen · -12.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Boeser21:31
- B. Gallagher09:14
- A. Bains08:54
- D. O'Connor16:26
- E. Pettersson18:41
- P. Cotter15:24
- M. Sasson13:44
- J. DeBrusk13:35
- F. Chytil18:43
- J. Lekkerimäki15:51
- L. Ohgren11:08
- L. Karlsson11:43
Defence · 6
- L. Schenn15:33
- J. Oleksiak22:54
- T. Willander14:02
- Z. Buium15:22
- F. Hronek27:00
- E. Pettersson21:04
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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