TACTICAL
The Ducks own the underlying play
The Ducks own the underlying play — 45.5% 5v5 xG vs 39.8%.
Preview · ANA at PHI
Ducks at Flyers: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanSat, Oct 24
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 24, 9:01 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a ANA 3.2 - 3.2 PHI game with the Flyers at 50% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Ducks own the underlying play . The Ducks own the underlying play — 45.5% 5v5 xG vs 39.8%.
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 48.1% . The Ducks drive Corsi at 48.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Flyers. The Flyers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Flyers are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Ducks are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | ANA | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 45.5% | 39.8% |
| Corsi% | 48.1% | 41.2% |
| PDO | 0.982 | 0.976 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 45.5% 5v5 xG vs 39.8%.
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 48.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Ducks' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: V. Husso (+1.1 GSAx in 4 GP, 88.6% SV) vs D. Vladar (+1.2 GSAx in 6 GP, 90.0% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 1:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
PHI 50%
50%
PHI
Model favorite
50%
50%
ANA50PHI
PHI by 0 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score ANA 3.2–3.2 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
ANA← edge
edge →PHI
45.5%39.8%
48.1%41.2%
2.842.37
3.393.58
2.701.67
3.303.00
0.9820.976
ANA holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.982 vs 0.976) says ANA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
ANA
4-6-0
-6 GD · 1d rest
PHI
3-5-2
-9 GD · 2d rest
0.982
ANA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.976
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Ducks drive Corsi at 48.1%
The Ducks drive Corsi at 48.1% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGPHI
Regression watch: Flyers
The Flyers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGANA
Regression watch: Ducks
The Ducks' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 45.5% 5v5 xG vs 39.8%.
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 48.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Ducks' PDO is 0.982 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Ducks own the underlying play — 45.5% 5v5 xG vs 39.8%.
- The Ducks drive Corsi at 48.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: V. Husso (+1.1 GSAx in 4 GP, 88.6% SV) vs D. Vladar (+1.2 GSAx in 6 GP, 90.0% SV).
- The Flyers are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Ducks are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
ANA
vs NJD · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
V. Husso
1 day rest.889 last start58:01 played
Backup Lukas Dostal · -0.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Colangelo11:58
- N. Nesterenko12:32
- A. Killorn15:23
- A. Greer13:20
- N. Klepov11:49
- T. Washe14:08
- B. Sennecke20:14
- C. Gauthier19:01
- M. Granlund20:06
- F. Vatrano11:52
- L. Carlsson19:13
- R. McQueen12:14
Defence · 6
- J. LaCombe27:53
- N. Jensen12:59
- D. Helleson16:10
- N. Warren16:03
- T. Hinds22:15
- T. Luneau21:14
PHI
vs BUF · Wed, Oct 21
Expected in goal
D. Vladar
2 days rest.964 last start60:00 played
Backup Joseph Woll · +3.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Couturier17:34
- A. Bump15:45
- C. Dvorak18:39
- N. Cates13:53
- M. Michkov18:02
- T. Zegras16:36
- N. Acciari14:04
- C. Knuble10:24
- T. Foerster16:47
- J. Gaucher08:55
- D. Barkey12:19
- P. Martone15:50
Defence · 6
- T. Sanheim26:20
- J. Drysdale24:37
- H. McDonald13:18
- N. Seeler17:59
- S. Benoit13:37
- O. Bonk19:34
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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