TACTICAL
The Stars own the underlying play
The Stars own the underlying play — 56.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.2%.
Preview · NYI at DAL
The Stars are the model's lean over the Islanders — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanSun, Oct 25
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 25, 9:01 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a NYI 2.9 - 3.4 DAL game with the Stars at 58% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Stars own the underlying play . The Stars own the underlying play — 56.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.2%.
- Regression watch: Stars. The Stars' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
- Regression watch: Islanders. The Islanders' PDO is 1.027 — running hot, expect some regression.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | NYI | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 48.2% | 56.8% |
| Corsi% | 53.3% | 51.9% |
| PDO | 1.027 | 1.019 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 56.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.2%.
Regression Watch
- The Stars' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.027 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: S. Varlamov (+4.3 GSAx in 3 GP, 89.9% SV) vs J. Oettinger (+8.0 GSAx in 8 GP, 93.9% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 6:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DAL 58%
58%
DAL
Model favorite
42%
58%
NYI50DAL
DAL by 16 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score NYI 2.9–3.4 DAL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NYI← edge
edge →DAL
48.2%56.8%
53.3%51.9%
2.923.24
3.142.46
2.902.50
2.201.60
1.0271.019
DAL holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.027 vs 1.019) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NYI
5-3-2
+6 GD · 2d rest
DAL
6-3-1
+9 GD · 2d rest
1.027
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.019
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGDAL
Regression watch: Stars
The Stars' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGNYI
Regression watch: Islanders
The Islanders' PDO is 1.027 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Stars own the underlying play — 56.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.2%.
Regression watch
- The Stars' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.027 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Stars own the underlying play — 56.8% 5v5 xG vs 48.2%.
- Goalie matchup: S. Varlamov (+4.3 GSAx in 3 GP, 89.9% SV) vs J. Oettinger (+8.0 GSAx in 8 GP, 93.9% SV).
- The Stars' PDO is 1.019 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NYI
vs LAK · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
S. Varlamov
2 days rest.889 last start62:17 played
Backup Ilya Sorokin · +5.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Schenn17:17
- A. Duclair14:43
- B. Horvat21:33
- K. Palmieri16:45
- M. Chaffee09:06
- K. MacLean08:03
- V. Eklund17:44
- J. Pageau16:23
- E. Heineman17:05
- C. Cizikas10:32
- O. Palat12:53
- S. Holmstrom20:50
Defence · 6
- A. Pelech20:03
- M. Kessel13:30
- R. Pulock18:32
- L. Stanley20:02
- M. Schaefer29:24
- T. DeAngelo18:10
DAL
vs WPG · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
2 days rest.895 last start63:03 played
Backup Casey DeSmith · +0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Faksa07:23
- J. Benn13:22
- C. Blackwell09:26
- S. Steel16:09
- J. Robertson21:42
- J. Kiviranta10:02
- R. Hintz15:20
- A. Hyry16:11
- J. Hryckowian17:22
- W. Johnston19:55
- T. Seguin15:09
- M. Rantanen20:09
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen29:20
- N. Lundkvist16:47
- L. Bichsel17:47
- K. Capobianco12:27
- T. Harley28:27
- T. Myers15:44
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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