TACTICAL
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 57.1%
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 57.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · MTL at WPG
Canadiens at Jets: no daylight between these two
The model's leanSun, Oct 25
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 25, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
This one is a coin flip on paper. The model projects MTL 3.2 - 3.3 WPG, a game decided by a single goal either way.
Put a number on the edge and WPG sits at 51% to win, which means the model barely separates the two sides.
The territorial picture favors MTL. They take more shot attempts at five-on-five than WPG, so expect the play to tilt toward MTL's end of the ice.
Expected goals, which weigh the quality of chances rather than just their number, tell a closer story. MTL holds a 51.1% share of expected goals, against 48.3% for WPG.
Regression is the bigger lever. The Jets' combined shooting and save percentage is running hot, and luck like that usually cools. The Canadiens' combined rate is running cold, which makes a rebound more likely for MTL.
In goal, J. Fowler has saved 3.5 more goals than the workload should have allowed, over 5 games. His save percentage is 91.0%. S. Skinner has saved 3.1 more goals than that workload should have allowed, over 7 games, and his save percentage is 91.2%, a touch higher.
Territory and regression both lean toward MTL, while the model still gives WPG the edge. That tension is why the game has no daylight between the two sides.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
WPG 51%
51%
WPG
Model favorite
49%
51%
MTL50WPG
WPG by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MTL 3.3–3.3 WPG; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MTL← edge
edge →WPG
51.1%48.3%
57.1%47.5%
3.373.04
3.223.26
3.202.60
3.502.90
0.9791.024
MTL holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.979 vs 1.024) says WPG has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MTL
5-3-2
-1 GD · 1d rest
WPG
4-3-3
-3 GD · 2d rest
0.979
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.024
WPG PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGWPG
Regression watch: Jets
The Jets' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGMTL
Regression watch: Canadiens
The Canadiens' PDO is 0.979 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
No daylight between these two
Win probability splits 51%–49% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 57.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Jets' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Canadiens' PDO is 0.979 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 57.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Fowler (+3.5 GSAx in 5 GP, 91.0% SV) vs S. Skinner (+3.1 GSAx in 7 GP, 91.2% SV).
- The Jets' PDO is 1.024 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MTL
vs CHI · Fri, Oct 23
Expected in goal
J. Fowler
1 day rest.952 last start59:55 played
Backup Jakub Dobes · -5.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Caufield16:11
- A. Newhook15:12
- J. Anderson13:19
- J. Slafkovský16:03
- C. Kreider11:19
- P. Danault18:15
- O. Beck10:25
- J. Evans17:12
- Z. Bolduc13:08
- K. Dach11:32
- A. Texier13:36
- O. Kapanen15:04
Defence · 6
- M. Matheson20:15
- K. Guhle23:30
- A. Carrier22:40
- L. Hutson22:04
- N. Dobson19:48
- A. Xhekaj10:38
WPG
vs DAL · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
S. Skinner
2 days rest.921 last start63:47 played
Backup Clay Stevenson · -0.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Iafallo12:39
- G. Vilardi19:41
- A. Lowry16:37
- I. Rosen15:18
- B. Yager14:38
- M. Barron14:23
- M. Scheifele23:40
- V. Björck12:43
- N. Niederreiter09:52
- K. Connor23:02
- C. Perfetti19:00
- B. Lambert07:10
Defence · 6
- D. DeMelo22:41
- N. Pionk29:42
- H. Fleury14:10
- M. Ferraro19:23
- D. Samberg22:19
- T. Bauer09:00
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
Keep going