WARNINGNSH
J. Saros on a back-to-back
J. Saros projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · COL at NSH
Avalanche at Predators: a true toss-up
The model's leanSun, Oct 25
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 25, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Avalanche are a narrow favorite, and the model's projected 3.3 to 3.0 score says the same thing: this is close to a coin flip. The tiebreaker sits in net, where one starter is on a back-to-back.
The Predators have been losing the scoreboard. Over their last 10 games they sit at -8 in goal differential, which means they have given up more goals than they have scored.
The Avalanche have the better underlying game. Expected goals, which weights each shot by how likely it is to become a goal, and shot attempts, which counts every shot fired at the net, both lean their way. The even-strength numbers are below.
| Metric | COL | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 52.8% | 47.1% |
| Corsi% | 51.6% | 44.0% |
| PDO | 1.060 | 0.977 |
The luck numbers cut the other way. The Predators' PDO, which adds on-ice shooting and save percentage together, is running cold and is due for positive regression. The Avalanche's is running hot and should expect some regression of its own.
In net, M. Blackwood has played 8 games and sits at -1.3 goals saved above what an average goalie would have stopped on the same shots. His save percentage is 89.3%. J. Saros, on the second night of a back-to-back, is at -0.5 on the same measure over the same 8 games. His save percentage is 90.8%. Watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Until the starter is confirmed, the toss-up label holds.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
COL 54%
54%
COL
Model favorite
54%
46%
COL50NSH
COL by 8 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score COL 3.3–3.0 NSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
COL← edge
edge →NSH
52.8%47.1%
51.6%44.0%
3.212.79
2.863.14
4.272.50
3.003.10
1.0600.977
COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.060 vs 0.977) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
COL
5-4-1
+9 GD · 1d rest
NSH
3-3-4
-8 GD · 0d rest
1.060
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.977
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Avalanche own the underlying play
The Avalanche own the underlying play — 52.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
TACTICAL
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 51.6%
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 51.6% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGNSH
Regression watch: Predators
The Predators' PDO is 0.977 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 52.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 51.6% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Predators' PDO is 0.977 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.060 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 52.8% 5v5 xG vs 47.1%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 51.6% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: M. Blackwood (-1.3 GSAx in 8 GP, 89.3% SV) vs J. Saros (-0.5 GSAx in 8 GP, 90.8% SV).
- J. Saros is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Predators are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Predators' PDO is 0.977 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
COL
vs TBL · Fri, Oct 23
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
1 day rest.912 last start60:00 played
Backup Scott Wedgewood · -0.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- F. Svechkov11:48
- B. Nelson18:22
- T. Hughes13:10
- T. Makar08:11
- P. Kelly14:17
- L. O'Connor14:47
- N. MacKinnon18:10
- A. Lehkonen18:56
- J. Schwartz13:07
- M. Necas16:32
- N. Kadri15:03
- G. Landeskog11:51
Defence · 6
- D. Toews17:39
- C. Makar21:07
- B. Kulak21:06
- J. Manson18:21
- S. Malinski19:05
- B. Burns18:15
NSH
vs PIT · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
J. Saros
back-to-back.919 last start63:44 played
Backup Justus Annunen · -1.9 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- F. Forsberg19:28
- A. Kerfoot17:19
- J. Drury17:26
- N. Hoglander09:28
- M. Bourque18:06
- V. Pinchuk05:10
- M. Wood14:18
- R. Colton16:27
- J. Marchessault15:56
- A. Edstrom14:26
- R. O'Reilly19:42
- S. Stamkos19:00
Defence · 6
- A. Wilsby23:10
- J. Struble16:09
- N. Hague16:32
- N. Perbix17:16
- R. Josi28:37
- B. Skjei20:42
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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