WARNINGMIN
J. Wallstedt on a back-to-back
J. Wallstedt projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · MIN at VAN
The Wild should handle the Canucks on the rest edge
The model's leanSun, Oct 25
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 25, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Wild should beat the Canucks even though the rest favors Vancouver. The model projects a MIN 3.7 - 2.9 VAN game and gives the Wild a 62% win probability.
Vancouver comes in on 2 days of rest, while the Wild are on none. The question mark is J. Wallstedt, who projects to start on the second night of a back-to-back. Watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Form Check
The Wild are the hotter team by points pace, at 5-3-2 over their last 10. The Canucks are underwater, at -20 goal differential over the same stretch.
Season 5v5 Numbers
The Wild own the underlying play. They take 59.4% of the 5v5 xG (expected goals), against 37.7% for the Canucks. On Corsi%, which counts shot attempts, Minnesota's side sits at 53.3%, so expect territorial tilt.
| Metric | MIN | VAN |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 59.4% | 37.7% |
| Corsi% | 53.3% | 41.0% |
| PDO | 1.015 | 0.998 |
Goaltending Matchup
J. Wallstedt has the goalie edge this season, at +6.0 GSAx, meaning goals saved beyond what his shots predicted, across 11 games. His 91.8% SV (save percentage) backs that up. K. Lankinen is at -14.4 GSAx in 8 games, with an 81.2% SV. That puts J. Wallstedt 20.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
MIN 62%
62%
MIN
Model favorite
62%
38%
MIN50VAN
MIN by 24 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score MIN 3.7–2.9 VAN; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MIN← edge
edge →VAN
59.4%37.7%
53.3%41.0%
4.162.30
2.843.80
3.082.92
2.334.67
1.0150.998
MIN holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.015 vs 0.998) says MIN has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MIN
5-3-2
+4 GD · 0d rest
VAN
1-8-1
-20 GD · 2d rest
1.015
MIN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.998
VAN PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Wild own the underlying play
The Wild own the underlying play — 59.4% 5v5 xG vs 37.7%.
TACTICAL
The Wild drive Corsi at 53.3%
The Wild drive Corsi at 53.3% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALMIN
The model's clear lean
The Wild project at 62% win probability.
Where the edges live
- The Wild own the underlying play — 59.4% 5v5 xG vs 37.7%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 53.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Things to watch
- The Wild own the underlying play — 59.4% 5v5 xG vs 37.7%.
- The Wild drive Corsi at 53.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Wallstedt (+6.0 GSAx in 11 GP, 91.8% SV) vs K. Lankinen (-14.4 GSAx in 8 GP, 81.2% SV).
- J. Wallstedt has the GSAx edge — 20.4 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Wild are the hotter team by points pace (5-3-2 over their last 10).
- The Canucks are underwater at -20 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Canucks have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MIN
vs SEA · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
J. Wallstedt
back-to-back.958 last start60:00 played
Backup Calvin Pickard · -2.3 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- B. Brink13:21
- M. Boldy17:14
- Y. Trenin15:01
- J. Eriksson Ek15:08
- T. Pitlick09:35
- B. Coleman16:30
- D. Yurov16:57
- R. Hartman13:47
- M. McCarron15:11
- M. Shabanov12:00
- N. Sturm13:21
- K. Kaprizov17:54
Defence · 6
- O. Maatta20:05
- Z. Bogosian16:57
- J. Brodin17:44
- M. Kiersted16:39
- Q. Hughes22:49
- J. Spurgeon21:47
VAN
vs DET · Thu, Oct 22
Expected in goal
K. Lankinen
2 days rest.839 last start60:00 played
Backup Leevi Merilainen · +0.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Boeser14:09
- B. Gallagher10:29
- A. Bains11:18
- D. O'Connor16:49
- M. Rossi09:38
- E. Pettersson20:48
- P. Cotter11:13
- M. Sasson13:23
- J. DeBrusk17:52
- F. Chytil20:32
- J. Lekkerimäki17:44
- L. Karlsson17:13
Defence · 6
- J. Oleksiak15:09
- T. Willander21:18
- Z. Buium20:57
- F. Hronek24:26
- E. Pettersson20:10
- V. Mancini11:54
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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