TACTICAL
The Blue Jackets own the underlying play
The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 46.8% 5v5 xG vs 39.5%.
Preview · CBJ at PHI
Blue Jackets at Flyers: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:03 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a CBJ 3.1 - 3.1 PHI game with the Blue Jackets at 51% win probability. This is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
Keys to the game
- The Blue Jackets own the underlying play. The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 46.8% 5v5 xG vs 39.5%.
- The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 48.8%. The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 48.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Flyers. The Flyers' PDO is 0.964 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Flyers are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Blue Jackets are underwater at -8 goal differential over their 9 games so far.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | CBJ | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 46.8% | 39.5% |
| Corsi% | 48.8% | 42.4% |
| PDO | 1.001 | 0.964 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 46.8% 5v5 xG vs 39.5%.
- The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 48.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.964 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: C. Talbot (+0.5 GSAx in 5 GP, 89.1% SV) vs J. Woll (+3.4 GSAx in 7 GP, 90.4% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
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The game, as it happens
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Win probability
The model's lean
CBJ 51%
51%
CBJ
Model favorite
51%
49%
CBJ50PHI
CBJ by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CBJ 3.1–3.1 PHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CBJ← edge
edge →PHI
46.8%39.5%
48.8%42.4%
2.812.41
3.193.68
2.331.85
3.333.15
1.0010.964
CBJ holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.001 vs 0.964) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 9–10
CBJ
4-5-0
-8 GD · 2d rest
PHI
3-6-1
-9 GD · 2d rest
1.001
CBJ PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.964
PHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 48.8%
The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 48.8% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGPHI
Regression watch: Flyers
The Flyers' PDO is 0.964 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 49%–51% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 46.8% 5v5 xG vs 39.5%.
- The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 48.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.964 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Blue Jackets own the underlying play — 46.8% 5v5 xG vs 39.5%.
- The Blue Jackets drive Corsi at 48.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: C. Talbot (+0.5 GSAx in 5 GP, 89.1% SV) vs J. Woll (+3.4 GSAx in 7 GP, 90.4% SV).
- The Flyers are underwater at -9 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Blue Jackets are underwater at -8 goal differential over their 9 games so far.
- The Flyers' PDO is 0.964 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CBJ
vs VGK · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
C. Talbot
2 days rest.963 last start60:59 played
Backup Jet Greaves · -1.8 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Coyle19:26
- C. Sillinger16:06
- D. Voronkov06:42
- A. Fantilli19:10
- S. Monahan18:16
- M. Olivier16:39
- V. Nichushkin17:13
- C. Garland17:03
- M. Knies19:09
- K. Johnson17:47
- L. Del Bel Belluz07:30
- R. Lomberg07:49
Defence · 6
- J. Christiansen18:24
- D. Mateychuk21:39
- C. Soucy12:25
- Z. Werenski28:15
- E. Gudbranson12:21
- D. Severson25:47
PHI
vs ANA · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
J. Woll
2 days rest.808 last start57:49 played
Backup Dan Vladar · +1.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Couturier15:49
- A. Bump14:39
- C. Dvorak19:47
- N. Cates12:34
- M. Michkov18:15
- T. Zegras21:32
- N. Acciari11:04
- C. Knuble10:53
- T. Foerster18:43
- J. Gaucher05:53
- D. Barkey15:10
- P. Martone18:25
Defence · 6
- T. Sanheim27:01
- J. Drysdale24:04
- H. McDonald10:04
- N. Seeler18:45
- R. Ristolainen14:34
- O. Bonk17:37
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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