TACTICALCAR
The model's clear lean
The Hurricanes project at 64% win probability.
Preview · BOS at CAR
The Hurricanes should handle the Bruins — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Carolina should win this one, but Boston's results have been running ahead of its play, and that gap is where the game could turn.
The model's clearest lean is the Hurricanes, at 64% to win.
The case for Carolina starts with the underlying play. Expected goals weigh every chance by how likely it was to become a goal, and by that measure the Hurricanes have controlled far more of the five-on-five action than Boston. Shot attempts, the count of every shot try, point the same way. The season table below has the figures.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | BOS | CAR |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 48.3% | 62.7% |
| Corsi% | 49.4% | 59.3% |
| PDO | 1.076 | 0.997 |
Boston is the team to watch for regression. Its PDO, the sum of a team's shooting and save percentages, is running hot, and we expect some of that luck to come back. A territorial edge tends to matter more when the finishing evens out, so expect the shot-attempt tilt to show up on the scoreboard eventually.
In goal, J. Swayman has saved +7.1 goals above expected, meaning he has stopped more shots than an average goalie would have, over 9 games. His save percentage is 92.0%. P. Kochetkov has +3.4 goals saved above expected in 7 games, and his save percentage is 91.6%.
Carolina has the better process. Boston has the better recent results, and that is the part of the ledger most likely to change.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected-goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CAR 64%
64%
CAR
Model favorite
36%
64%
BOS50CAR
CAR by 28 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score BOS 2.9–3.8 CAR; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
BOS← edge
edge →CAR
48.3%62.7%
49.4%59.3%
3.144.13
3.362.46
4.003.92
2.172.46
1.0760.997
CAR holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.076 vs 0.997) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
BOS
7-2-1
+18 GD · 2d rest
CAR
8-1-1
+21 GD · 2d rest
1.076
BOS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.997
CAR PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes own the underlying play
The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.3%.
TACTICAL
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.3%
The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.3% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGBOS
Regression watch: Bruins
The Bruins' PDO is 1.076 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.3%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.076 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Hurricanes own the underlying play — 62.7% 5v5 xG vs 48.3%.
- The Hurricanes drive Corsi at 59.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Swayman (+7.1 GSAx in 9 GP, 92.0% SV) vs P. Kochetkov (+3.4 GSAx in 7 GP, 91.6% SV).
- The Bruins' PDO is 1.076 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
BOS
vs SJS · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
J. Swayman
2 days rest.852 last start60:00 played
Backup Michael DiPietro · +5.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Peterka17:50
- C. Mittelstadt15:18
- P. Zacha19:46
- E. Lindholm17:27
- M. Geekie15:38
- J. Hagens12:17
- M. Kastelic08:38
- M. Poitras07:07
- T. Jeannot07:16
- D. Pastrnak20:24
- M. Khusnutdinov16:00
- F. Minten18:15
Defence · 6
- M. Lohrei17:05
- W. Borgen17:49
- H. Lindholm21:04
- F. Brunet14:38
- C. McAvoy24:51
- N. Zadorov18:17
CAR
vs STL · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
P. Kochetkov
2 days rest1.000 last start59:50 played
Backup Brandon Bussi · -5.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Aho16:36
- L. Stankoven15:30
- S. Jarvis16:17
- N. Ehlers15:31
- W. Carrier13:21
- A. Svechnikov14:49
- N. Deslauriers11:50
- J. Martinook17:28
- E. Robinson12:41
- J. Blake17:14
- S. Brind'Amour11:38
- J. Kotkaniemi16:24
Defence · 6
- S. Gostisbehere17:40
- J. Chatfield20:34
- J. Välimäki16:13
- K. Miller23:14
- S. Walker20:49
- J. Slavin20:21
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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