WARNINGLAK
D. Kuemper on a back-to-back
D. Kuemper projects to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or tired legs.
Test the goalie early with traffic and second-chance pressure.
Preview · LAK at CHI
Kings at Blackhawks: no daylight between these two
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model picks the Kings, 3.2 - 3.0, but the edge is thin enough that a single bounce could decide it.
The model gives the Kings a 55% chance to win, about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The stronger signal sits underneath the scoreboard. The Kings have generated more expected goals than the Blackhawks at five-on-five, the model's measure of shot quality, and they also control more shot attempts, which counts every shot try, including misses and blocks.
Season numbers at five-on-five
| Metric | LAK | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 47.8% | 42.1% |
| Shot attempt share | 48.1% | 42.5% |
| Shooting plus save percentage | 0.993 | 0.980 |
Recent form points the same way. The Blackhawks have been outscored by 16 goals over their last 10 games. The Kings have been outscored by 8 over the same stretch. Chicago's shooting-and-save luck is also running cold, and positive regression is due.
In goal, the back-to-back deserves the most attention. D. Kuemper is projected to start on no rest, the second night of a back-to-back, so watch for a backup start or tired legs. Across 7 games, he has allowed 2.8 more goals than that workload should have allowed. His save percentage is 88.9%. S. Knight has the opposite profile: across 9 games, he has allowed 0.3 fewer goals than that workload should have allowed, with a save percentage of 89.1%.
Read this as a coin flip that leans toward the team with the better underlying game.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
LAK 55%
55%
LAK
Model favorite
55%
45%
LAK50CHI
LAK by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score LAK 3.2–3.0 CHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
LAK← edge
edge →CHI
47.8%42.1%
48.1%42.5%
2.782.66
3.043.66
2.702.18
3.503.91
0.9930.980
LAK holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.993 vs 0.980) says LAK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
LAK
3-5-2
-8 GD · 0d rest
CHI
3-7-0
-16 GD · 1d rest
0.993
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.980
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Kings own the underlying play
The Kings own the underlying play — 47.8% 5v5 xG vs 42.1%.
TACTICAL
The Kings drive Corsi at 48.1%
The Kings drive Corsi at 48.1% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCHI
Regression watch: Blackhawks
The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Kings own the underlying play — 47.8% 5v5 xG vs 42.1%.
- The Kings drive Corsi at 48.1% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Kings own the underlying play — 47.8% 5v5 xG vs 42.1%.
- The Kings drive Corsi at 48.1% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: D. Kuemper (-2.8 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.9% SV) vs S. Knight (+0.3 GSAx in 9 GP, 89.1% SV).
- D. Kuemper is on a back-to-back — watch for a backup start or a tired starter.
- The Blackhawks are underwater at -16 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Kings are underwater at -8 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.980 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
LAK
vs NYR · Mon, Oct 26
Expected in goal
D. Kuemper
back-to-back.885 last start59:19 played
Backup Anton Forsberg · +0.1 GSAx this season
Back-to-back: the backup often gets this one. Treat the starter as unconfirmed.
Forwards · 12
- A. Kempe18:26
- A. Panarin19:52
- T. Moore14:01
- A. Laferriere18:17
- T. Ward12:33
- S. Laughton17:23
- J. Armia17:50
- A. Lee09:15
- Q. Byfield17:10
- E. Haula16:44
- S. Helenius10:11
- C. Perry10:19
Defence · 6
- B. Dumoulin16:42
- J. Edmundson20:00
- D. Doughty21:37
- M. Anderson17:23
- E. Gustafsson20:23
- B. Clarke20:10
CHI
vs FLA · Sun, Oct 25
Expected in goal
S. Knight
1 day rest.912 last start57:38 played
Backup Arvid Soderblom · -2.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Donato12:36
- J. Greenway13:30
- A. Frondell16:47
- R. Greene14:40
- C. Smith09:46
- A. Mangiapane08:46
- T. Bertuzzi22:22
- R. Kantserov21:12
- T. Teravainen18:57
- P. Kane20:21
- F. Nazar15:31
- C. Bedard23:09
Defence · 6
- S. Rinzel15:07
- K. Korchinski12:41
- I. Cole15:25
- W. Kaiser15:36
- A. Levshunov20:18
- A. Vlasic17:33
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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