TACTICAL
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 56.3%
The Canadiens drive Corsi at 56.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · MTL at STL
Canadiens at Blues: a true toss-up
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Canadiens and Blues are close enough that the model's answer is a coin flip. It projects MTL 3.1, STL 3.2, a result that could tip either way on one bounce.
The Blues come out narrowly ahead on win probability at 51%, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as a model gets.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | MTL | STL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 50.9% | 48.4% |
| Corsi% | 56.3% | 49.3% |
| PDO | 0.988 | 0.984 |
Montreal's edge is territory. The Canadiens take a clearly larger share of the shot attempts at even strength, so expect them to do more of the pushing. The gap narrows on expected goals, which weighs shot quality as well as volume.
St. Louis is running cold. Its PDO, a rough gauge of puck luck that combines shooting and save percentage, sits low, and the model expects it to turn positive.
The goalie matchup pits J. Fowler against J. Hofer. J. Fowler has saved 5.9 more goals than expected in 6 games. J. Hofer has saved 4.8 more in 8 games. J. Fowler's save percentage is 92.4%, and J. Hofer's is 91.7%.
Montreal controls the play, St. Louis is due for better luck, and the margins will decide it.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
STL 51%
51%
STL
Model favorite
49%
51%
MTL50STL
STL by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score MTL 3.1–3.2 STL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
MTL← edge
edge →STL
50.9%48.4%
56.3%49.3%
3.382.80
3.262.99
3.093.18
3.273.18
0.9880.984
The season numbers split 3–3 — no clear process edge — and the luck row (0.988 vs 0.984) says MTL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
MTL
5-3-2
-1 GD · 1d rest
STL
4-5-1
-4 GD · 2d rest
0.988
MTL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.984
STL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGSTL
Regression watch: Blues
The Blues' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 51%–49% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 56.3% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blues' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Canadiens drive Corsi at 56.3% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Fowler (+5.9 GSAx in 6 GP, 92.4% SV) vs J. Hofer (+4.8 GSAx in 8 GP, 91.7% SV).
- The Blues' PDO is 0.984 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
MTL
vs WPG · Sun, Oct 25
Expected in goal
J. Fowler
1 day rest.971 last start60:00 played
Backup Jakub Dobes · -5.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Caufield15:50
- A. Newhook15:01
- J. Anderson14:32
- J. Slafkovský16:22
- C. Kreider11:27
- P. Danault18:58
- F. Xhekaj10:17
- J. Evans18:06
- Z. Bolduc11:42
- K. Dach13:15
- A. Texier12:26
- O. Kapanen14:18
Defence · 6
- M. Matheson25:37
- K. Guhle23:10
- A. Carrier20:32
- L. Hutson21:12
- N. Dobson19:25
- A. Xhekaj10:18
STL
vs CAR · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
J. Hofer
2 days rest.897 last start60:00 played
Backup Jordan Binnington · -7.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- D. Dvorsky12:06
- R. Thomas18:15
- J. Snuggerud16:49
- P. Suter12:40
- O. Stenberg10:50
- J. Berggren17:18
- A. Kaskimaki13:26
- J. Neighbours14:10
- C. McMichael15:21
- D. Holloway17:05
- M. McTavish17:08
- P. Buchnevich15:26
Defence · 6
- P. Broberg24:33
- C. Fowler19:09
- B. Carlo18:06
- A. Jiricek16:34
- C. Parayko20:12
- J. Barron19:42
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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