TACTICAL
The Islanders drive Corsi at 51.8%
The Islanders drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · NYI at NSH
Islanders at Predators: a genuine coin flip
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
Nothing in the model separates these two teams, and the reasons pull in opposite directions. One side controls the run of play. The other has been on the wrong end of the bounces.
The model puts the Predators at a 53% win probability, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. It projects NYI 3.1 - 3.3 NSH.
The Islanders have the territorial edge. They hold 51.8% of the shot attempts taken at five-on-five, so expect the pressure to tilt their way for long stretches. A shot attempt is any shot, on goal or not, and a team that takes more of them is usually the team with the puck.
Luck is the swing factor. The Predators are running cold: their PDO, the sum of a team's shooting and save percentages, sits at 0.981, which points to positive regression. The Islanders are running hot at 1.022, so some of that good fortune should give back.
The full five-on-five picture is below.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | NYI | NSH |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 47.0% | 47.7% |
| Corsi% | 51.8% | 44.5% |
| PDO | 1.022 | 0.981 |
The goaltending numbers split sharply. I. Sorokin has allowed more than the shots he faced should have produced, with +3.6 goals saved above expected over 8 games. His save percentage is 91.9%. J. Annunen has been far less steady, at -1.3 goals saved above expected in 2 games, and he has stopped 84.6% of shots.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
NSH 53%
53%
NSH
Model favorite
47%
53%
NYI50NSH
NSH by 6 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score NYI 3.1–3.3 NSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NYI← edge
edge →NSH
47.0%47.7%
51.8%44.5%
2.852.84
3.213.11
2.912.82
2.553.00
1.0220.981
NYI holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.022 vs 0.981) says NYI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NYI
5-3-2
+4 GD · 1d rest
NSH
4-2-4
-2 GD · 1d rest
1.022
NYI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.981
NSH PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGNSH
Regression watch: Predators
The Predators' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGNYI
Regression watch: Islanders
The Islanders' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A genuine coin flip
Win probability splits 53%–47% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Predators' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Islanders' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Islanders drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: I. Sorokin (+3.6 GSAx in 8 GP, 91.9% SV) vs J. Annunen (-1.3 GSAx in 2 GP, 84.6% SV).
- The Predators' PDO is 0.981 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NYI
vs DAL · Sun, Oct 25
Expected in goal
I. Sorokin
1 day rest.842 last start59:56 played
Backup Semyon Varlamov · +4.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Schenn16:10
- A. Duclair14:37
- B. Horvat19:18
- K. Palmieri16:58
- M. Chaffee11:22
- K. MacLean10:37
- V. Eklund14:23
- J. Pageau13:21
- E. Heineman15:00
- C. Cizikas11:27
- O. Palat15:17
- S. Holmstrom18:57
Defence · 6
- A. Pelech19:23
- M. Kessel14:02
- R. Pulock19:06
- L. Stanley20:51
- M. Schaefer26:16
- T. DeAngelo17:14
NSH
vs COL · Sun, Oct 25
Expected in goal
J. Annunen
1 day rest.905 last start60:00 played
Backup Juuse Saros · -0.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 11
- F. Forsberg18:50
- A. Kerfoot17:28
- J. Drury16:39
- N. Hoglander11:09
- M. Bourque14:59
- M. Wood12:29
- R. Colton15:27
- J. Marchessault17:19
- A. Edstrom15:51
- R. O'Reilly20:48
- S. Stamkos17:46
Defence · 7
- A. Wilsby15:28
- J. Struble15:07
- N. Hague15:56
- N. Perbix17:39
- D. Hunt09:34
- R. Josi21:10
- B. Skjei18:21
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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