TACTICAL
The Devils drive Corsi at 59.7%
The Devils drive Corsi at 59.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Preview · NJD at DAL
Devils at Stars: too close to call
The model's leanTue, Oct 27
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelOct 27, 9:03 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a 3.1 - 3.1 finish, which makes this about as close to a pick'em as you will find. Nothing in the numbers hands either side the game, so the useful question is what kind of game each team plays.
The Stars have a 51% chance to win, which is barely better than a coin flip. That slim lean is the model's whole case for Dallas, and it should not be mistaken for confidence.
The Devils are the team that controls play. Their share of shot attempts (Corsi% in the table) and expected goals both sit ahead of Dallas's, so expect the game to tilt toward New Jersey's end of the ice.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | NJD | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 60.5% | 57.6% |
| Corsi% | 59.7% | 52.9% |
| PDO | 0.976 | 1.017 |
Luck is the bigger swing factor. PDO, the combined measure of shooting and save results, has Dallas running hot, which should cool. New Jersey is running cold and is due for positive regression.
In goal, the gap is wider. J. Allen has allowed more goals than that workload should have allowed, sitting at -4.0 goals saved above expected through 7 games. J. Oettinger has gone the other way, at +7.1 through 9 games. That gives Oettinger a lead of 11.1 goals over his counterpart this season.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck expected goals model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 8:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
DAL 51%
51%
DAL
Model favorite
49%
51%
NJD50DAL
DAL by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score NJD 3.1–3.1 DAL; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
NJD← edge
edge →DAL
60.5%57.6%
59.7%52.9%
3.823.31
2.492.43
3.272.82
2.911.73
0.9761.017
NJD holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.976 vs 1.017) says DAL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
NJD
6-4-0
+3 GD · 2d rest
DAL
7-2-1
+16 GD · 1d rest
0.976
NJD PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.017
DAL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGDAL
Regression watch: Stars
The Stars' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGNJD
Regression watch: Devils
The Devils' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
Too close to call
Win probability splits 51%–49% — margins decide this one.
Where the edges live
- The Devils drive Corsi at 59.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Stars' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Devils' PDO is 0.976 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Devils drive Corsi at 59.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: J. Allen (-4.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 88.6% SV) vs J. Oettinger (+7.1 GSAx in 9 GP, 92.9% SV).
- J. Oettinger has the GSAx edge — 11.1 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Stars' PDO is 1.017 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
NJD
vs LAK · Sat, Oct 24
Expected in goal
J. Allen
2 days rest.923 last start60:00 played
Backup Nico Daws · -1.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- C. Glass13:55
- N. Hischier16:16
- C. Brown15:09
- E. Rodrigues14:38
- T. Meier15:49
- A. Mantha12:20
- J. Bratt17:20
- J. Boqvist10:51
- L. Evangelista16:26
- A. Gritsyuk15:20
- J. Hughes19:18
- A. Lombardi12:19
Defence · 6
- B. Dillon14:51
- D. Hamilton18:59
- J. Kovacevic16:23
- B. Pesce21:31
- L. Hughes25:25
- J. Siegenthaler19:10
DAL
vs NYI · Sun, Oct 25
Expected in goal
J. Oettinger
1 day rest.842 last start60:00 played
Backup Casey DeSmith · +0.9 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Benn12:15
- C. Blackwell10:18
- J. Robertson18:58
- J. Kiviranta13:08
- R. Hintz16:17
- A. Hyry16:01
- M. Seminoff08:53
- D. Hryckowian10:03
- J. Hryckowian13:54
- W. Johnston20:15
- T. Seguin14:52
- M. Rantanen18:52
Defence · 6
- M. Heiskanen21:56
- N. Lundkvist18:20
- L. Bichsel18:10
- K. Capobianco15:01
- T. Harley24:43
- T. Myers20:04
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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