TACTICAL
The Avalanche own the underlying play
The Avalanche own the underlying play — 53.2% 5v5 xG vs 42.2%.
Preview · COL at CHI
The Avalanche are the model's lean over the Blackhawks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanMon, Nov 2
Written from the numbers
The read
Model draft
◆ By the ModelNov 2, 9:01 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model projects a COL 3.5 - 2.9 CHI game with the Avalanche at 59% win probability.
Keys to the game
- The Avalanche own the underlying play . The Avalanche own the underlying play — 53.2% 5v5 xG vs 42.2%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.4% . The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Regression watch: Blackhawks. The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Form Check
- The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 over their last 10).
- The Blackhawks are underwater at -14 goal differential over their last 10.
Season 5v5 Numbers
| Metric | COL | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 53.2% | 42.2% |
| Corsi% | 52.4% | 45.4% |
| PDO | 1.054 | 0.974 |
Where the Edges Live
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 53.2% 5v5 xG vs 42.2%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression Watch
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Goaltending Matchup
- Goalie matchup: M. Blackwood (-0.1 GSAx in 10 GP, 89.7% SV) vs A. Soderblom (-3.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 82.9% SV).
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
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Win probability
The model's lean
COL 59%
59%
COL
Model favorite
59%
41%
COL50CHI
COL by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score COL 3.5–2.9 CHI; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
COL← edge
edge →CHI
53.2%42.2%
52.4%45.4%
3.292.79
2.893.83
4.212.21
3.073.79
1.0540.974
COL holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.054 vs 0.974) says COL has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
COL
5-4-1
+3 GD · 1d rest
CHI
3-6-1
-14 GD · 1d rest
1.054
COL PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.974
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.4%
The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.4% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGCHI
Regression watch: Blackhawks
The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGCOL
Regression watch: Avalanche
The Avalanche's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 53.2% 5v5 xG vs 42.2%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.4% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Avalanche's PDO is 1.054 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- The Avalanche own the underlying play — 53.2% 5v5 xG vs 42.2%.
- The Avalanche drive Corsi at 52.4% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: M. Blackwood (-0.1 GSAx in 10 GP, 89.7% SV) vs A. Soderblom (-3.6 GSAx in 3 GP, 82.9% SV).
- The Avalanche are the hotter team by points pace (5-4-1 over their last 10).
- The Blackhawks are underwater at -14 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
COL
vs CGY · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
M. Blackwood
1 day rest.926 last start60:00 played
Backup Scott Wedgewood · -3.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- F. Svechkov12:12
- N. Roy13:32
- B. Nelson13:38
- T. Hughes17:00
- P. Kelly12:27
- N. MacKinnon19:06
- G. Brindley12:00
- A. Lehkonen15:48
- J. Schwartz14:36
- M. Necas20:02
- N. Kadri19:57
- G. Landeskog15:23
Defence · 6
- D. Toews20:48
- C. Makar24:27
- B. Kulak17:32
- N. Juulsen15:24
- S. Malinski18:40
- B. Burns17:28
CHI
vs BOS · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
A. Soderblom
1 day rest.844 last start62:32 played
Backup Spencer Knight · +4.7 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Donato13:55
- O. Moore10:34
- J. Greenway11:59
- A. Frondell19:15
- R. Greene12:38
- C. Smith15:02
- A. Mangiapane12:50
- T. Bertuzzi13:22
- R. Kantserov18:51
- P. Kane15:11
- F. Nazar16:14
- C. Bedard22:07
Defence · 6
- S. Rinzel11:39
- I. Cole24:40
- E. Del Mastro12:29
- W. Kaiser22:57
- A. Levshunov20:38
- A. Vlasic23:15
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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