TACTICAL
The Flames own the underlying play
The Flames own the underlying play — 45.2% 5v5 xG vs 40.6%.
Preview · CGY at SJS
Flames at Sharks: a true toss-up
The model's leanMon, Nov 2
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 2, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
On paper, this is about as close to a pick'em as you'll find. The Flames have been the better team at controlling play, but the Sharks have been on the wrong end of the scoreboard lately, and the numbers point in both directions.
The model projects a close game, with CGY at 3.3 goals and SJS at 3.2. That still gives the Flames a 51% chance to win, which is barely a lean.
Calgary's advantage shows up in the underlying play. At five-on-five, the Flames hold 45.2% of the expected goals, to the Sharks' 40.6%. Calgary also drives Corsi at 51.8%, so expect territorial tilt.
The Sharks are the bigger regression story. Their PDO of 0.970 is running cold and due for positive regression. The Flames are cold too, at 0.945, and due for the same correction.
Over their last 10 games, the Sharks are underwater at -7 in goal differential.
In goal, A. Nedeljkovic has the goals saved above expected edge, 5.6 goals above his counterpart this season. He is at +3.9 across six games, with an 89.9% save percentage. A. Sergeev is at -1.7 in one game, with an 84.8% save percentage.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 9:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
CGY 51%
51%
CGY
Model favorite
51%
49%
CGY50SJS
CGY by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CGY 3.3–3.2 SJS; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CGY← edge
edge →SJS
45.2%40.6%
51.8%44.5%
2.862.73
3.464.00
2.572.67
3.713.40
0.9450.970
CGY holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.945 vs 0.970) says SJS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CGY
6-4-0
+1 GD · 1d rest
SJS
4-5-1
-7 GD · 1d rest
0.945
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.970
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Flames drive Corsi at 51.8%
The Flames drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGCGY
Regression watch: Flames
The Flames' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Flames own the underlying play — 45.2% 5v5 xG vs 40.6%.
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Flames' PDO is 0.945 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Flames own the underlying play — 45.2% 5v5 xG vs 40.6%.
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.8% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: A. Sergeev (-1.7 GSAx in 1 GP, 84.8% SV) vs A. Nedeljkovic (+3.9 GSAx in 6 GP, 89.9% SV).
- A. Nedeljkovic has the GSAx edge — 5.6 goals above his counterpart this season.
- The Sharks are underwater at -7 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.970 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CGY
vs COL · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
A. Sergeev
1 day rest.848 last start60:00 played
Backup Devin Cooley · +4.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- M. Backlund19:03
- M. Frost14:18
- Y. Sharangovich17:52
- R. Strome11:48
- M. Coronato15:33
- J. Castagna12:36
- A. Klapka11:29
- A. Suniev15:23
- M. Tsyplakov10:11
- M. Pospisil14:36
- J. Farabee17:34
- M. Gridin13:36
Defence · 6
- K. Bahl23:02
- Z. Parekh18:04
- Z. Whitecloud20:32
- Y. Kuznetsov18:44
- J. Middleton16:51
- S. Nemec23:06
SJS
vs OTT · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
A. Nedeljkovic
1 day rest.882 last start57:31 played
Backup Yaroslav Askarov · +6.1 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith17:10
- T. Dellandrea15:59
- F. Bystedt15:14
- B. Goodrow13:32
- M. Marchment14:38
- I. Stenberg15:35
- K. Sherwood11:57
- C. Graf13:37
- Z. Ostapchuk13:07
- M. Celebrini19:43
- T. Toffoli14:53
- M. Misa14:40
Defence · 6
- N. Allan14:16
- S. Dickinson18:28
- M. Kesselring21:27
- D. Orlov16:22
- D. Nurse21:10
- J. Trouba22:41
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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