TACTICALSEA
Rest edge
The Kraken come in on 4 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Preview · CGY at SEA
Flames at Kraken: no daylight between these two
The model's leanWed, Nov 4
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 4, 9:02 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The Flames and the Kraken are about as close to a pick'em as you'll find.
The model projects the Flames at 3.1 goals and the Kraken at 3.2. That gives Seattle a 52% win probability, which is close to a coin flip.
The most revealing split sits between two shot measures. The Flames lead in shot attempts, while the Kraken hold a slight edge in expected goals. Expect Calgary to carry more of the territorial play, even though expected goals rates the two nearly even.
Five-on-five numbers for the season:
| Metric | CGY | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 45.0% | 45.5% |
| Shot attempt share | 51.0% | 43.1% |
| PDO | 0.952 | 1.044 |
The Kraken's PDO is running hot, so expect some regression. The Flames' PDO is running cold and is due for positive regression.
The Kraken come in on 4 days of rest. The Flames come in on just 1 day.
The goalie matchup is D. Wolf against P. Grubauer. D. Wolf has allowed 6.6 more goals than that workload should have allowed, the wider gap of the two. P. Grubauer's gap is 4.0 goals. P. Grubauer's save percentage is 88.6%, the higher of the two. D. Wolf's is 86.2%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 10:00 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
SEA 52%
52%
SEA
Model favorite
48%
52%
CGY50SEA
SEA by 4 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CGY 3.1–3.2 SEA; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CGY← edge
edge →SEA
45.0%45.5%
51.0%43.1%
2.822.84
3.443.40
2.533.57
3.533.71
0.9521.044
SEA holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.952 vs 1.044) says SEA has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CGY
7-3-0
+4 GD · 1d rest
SEA
6-3-1
-4 GD · 4d rest
0.952
CGY PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
1.044
SEA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Flames drive Corsi at 51.0%
The Flames drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSEA
Regression watch: Kraken
The Kraken's PDO is 1.044 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
WARNINGCGY
Regression watch: Flames
The Flames' PDO is 0.952 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.044 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Flames' PDO is 0.952 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Flames drive Corsi at 51.0% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: D. Wolf (-6.6 GSAx in 8 GP, 86.2% SV) vs P. Grubauer (-4.0 GSAx in 9 GP, 88.6% SV).
- The Kraken's PDO is 1.044 — running hot, expect some regression.
- The Kraken have 3 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CGY
vs SJS · Mon, Nov 2
Expected in goal
D. Wolf
1 day rest.963 last start60:00 played
Backup Devin Cooley · +4.4 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- M. Backlund20:47
- M. Frost14:28
- Y. Sharangovich17:24
- R. Strome13:14
- M. Coronato18:38
- J. Castagna09:53
- A. Klapka11:36
- A. Suniev14:53
- W. Stromgren08:34
- M. Pospisil13:34
- J. Farabee20:11
- M. Gridin15:53
Defence · 6
- K. Bahl19:26
- Z. Parekh18:25
- Z. Whitecloud22:25
- Y. Kuznetsov16:15
- J. Middleton21:00
- S. Nemec17:24
SEA
vs CGY · Fri, Oct 30
Expected in goal
P. Grubauer
4 days rest.714 last start30:40 played
P. Grubauer started last game and was relieved by J. Daccord (29:20 of it).
Backup Joey Daccord · -1.5 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- J. Eberle15:46
- C. Stephenson15:47
- M. Beniers16:01
- M. Samoskevich18:54
- R. Winterton12:20
- B. Catton17:26
- C. Douglas04:29
- S. Wright17:18
- B. Meyers13:31
- B. McMann18:29
- K. Kakko16:25
- F. Gaudreau17:56
Defence · 6
- A. Larsson17:18
- C. Fleury14:41
- J. Mahura15:51
- V. Dunn19:36
- R. Evans21:26
- B. Montour24:43
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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