TACTICAL
The Kings own the underlying play
The Kings own the underlying play — 49.8% 5v5 xG vs 41.4%.
Preview · SJS at LAK
The Kings are the model's lean over the Sharks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanWed, Nov 4
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 4, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model leans toward the Kings, and the reasons reach past the standings. Los Angeles owns the underlying play, while San Jose is running cold and is due for positive regression.
The model projects a SJS 2.9 - 3.5 LAK game. It gives the Kings a 59% win probability.
The first edge is rest. Los Angeles comes in on 3 days of rest, and San Jose comes in on 1.
The underlying numbers point the same way. The Kings own the underlying play in five-on-five expected goals, and they also drive shot attempts, which should produce territorial tilt toward Los Angeles. The table below sets out the five-on-five figures for both sides.
| Metric | SJS | LAK |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 41.4% | 49.8% |
| Corsi% | 45.6% | 48.9% |
| PDO | 0.969 | 0.996 |
San Jose is also underwater, with a goal differential of -5 over its last 10 games. The regression story sits in PDO. The Sharks are running cold and are due for positive regression.
In goal, the matchup pits Y. Askarov against A. Forsberg. Askarov has +6.2 goals saved above expected across 10 games. Askarov's save percentage is 90.1%. Forsberg has +1.2 goals saved above expected across 6 games. Forsberg's save percentage is 90.2%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
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The game, as it happens
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Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
LAK 59%
59%
LAK
Model favorite
41%
59%
SJS50LAK
LAK by 18 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score SJS 2.9–3.5 LAK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
SJS← edge
edge →LAK
41.4%49.8%
45.6%48.9%
2.753.02
3.893.05
2.562.77
3.313.46
0.9690.996
LAK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.969 vs 0.996) says LAK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
SJS
4-5-1
-5 GD · 1d rest
LAK
4-5-1
-3 GD · 3d rest
0.969
SJS PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.996
LAK PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Kings drive Corsi at 48.9%
The Kings drive Corsi at 48.9% — expect territorial tilt.
WARNINGSJS
Regression watch: Sharks
The Sharks' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICALLAK
Rest edge
The Kings come in on 3 days of rest; the other side on 1.
Push the pace early against tired legs.
Where the edges live
- The Kings own the underlying play — 49.8% 5v5 xG vs 41.4%.
- The Kings drive Corsi at 48.9% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Kings own the underlying play — 49.8% 5v5 xG vs 41.4%.
- The Kings drive Corsi at 48.9% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: Y. Askarov (+6.2 GSAx in 10 GP, 90.1% SV) vs A. Forsberg (+1.2 GSAx in 6 GP, 90.2% SV).
- The Sharks are underwater at -5 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Sharks' PDO is 0.969 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Kings have 2 more days of rest.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
SJS
vs CGY · Mon, Nov 2
Expected in goal
Y. Askarov
1 day rest.909 last start58:13 played
Backup Alex Nedeljkovic · +4.0 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- W. Smith18:23
- F. Bystedt10:28
- B. Goodrow08:04
- M. Marchment21:10
- I. Stenberg16:41
- K. Sherwood19:22
- C. Graf16:12
- Z. Ostapchuk09:39
- M. Celebrini22:56
- T. Toffoli17:00
- M. Misa17:19
- A. Gaudette09:17
Defence · 6
- N. Allan11:58
- S. Dickinson18:55
- M. Kesselring18:41
- D. Orlov12:42
- D. Nurse21:25
- J. Trouba25:35
LAK
vs BUF · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
A. Forsberg
3 days rest.903 last start57:57 played
Backup Darcy Kuemper · -5.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- A. Panarin24:50
- T. Moore18:30
- A. Laferriere23:13
- T. Ward06:11
- S. Laughton11:05
- J. Armia10:40
- M. Chromiak17:31
- A. Lee09:32
- Q. Byfield22:15
- E. Haula11:44
- S. Helenius05:41
- C. Perry19:42
Defence · 6
- B. Dumoulin14:38
- J. Edmundson18:05
- D. Doughty23:11
- M. Anderson18:11
- E. Gustafsson21:35
- B. Clarke20:07
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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