TACTICAL
The Panthers own the underlying play
The Panthers own the underlying play — 52.9% 5v5 xG vs 42.2%.
Preview · CHI at FLA
The Panthers are the model's lean over the Blackhawks — with PDO regression in play
The model's leanWed, Nov 4
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 4, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
The model likes Florida over Chicago, and the case rests on how each team has played five-on-five, not on how recent results have gone. The Panthers have owned the underlying play, the shots and chances that sit beneath the score.
The model projects Chicago at 2.9 goals and Florida at 3.6. That gives the Panthers a 61% win probability, which the model treats as its clear lean.
The table sets the season five-on-five numbers side by side. Florida leads on both expected goals share and shot attempt share, and that territorial edge is the tilt the model expects.
| Metric | CHI | FLA |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals share | 42.2% | 52.9% |
| Shot attempt share | 45.4% | 55.7% |
| PDO | 0.974 | 0.971 |
Luck is the complicating factor. Both teams are running cold on PDO, the shooting-and-save luck gauge, and both are due for positive regression.
Florida is also the hotter team by points pace, going 6-4-0 over its last 10. Chicago is underwater, with a -14 goal differential over the same span.
In goal, S. Knight has +3.8 goals saved above expected over 12 games played. J. Markstrom is at +0.0 over 7 games played. Their save percentages are close, with Knight's 89.4% a hair ahead of Markstrom's.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
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Win probability
The model's lean
FLA 61%
61%
FLA
Model favorite
39%
61%
CHI50FLA
FLA by 22 points of win probability — a clear lean. Projected score CHI 2.9–3.6 FLA; 15% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
CHI← edge
edge →FLA
42.2%52.9%
45.4%55.7%
2.773.36
3.792.99
2.203.13
3.872.93
0.9740.971
FLA holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (0.974 vs 0.971) says CHI has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
CHI
3-6-1
-14 GD · 1d rest
FLA
6-4-0
+6 GD · 1d rest
0.974
CHI PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.971
FLA PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
TACTICAL
The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.7%
The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.7% — expect territorial tilt.
TACTICALFLA
The model's clear lean
The Panthers project at 61% win probability.
WARNINGFLA
Regression watch: Panthers
The Panthers' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
Where the edges live
- The Panthers own the underlying play — 52.9% 5v5 xG vs 42.2%.
- The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.7% — expect territorial tilt.
Regression watch
- The Panthers' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
- The Blackhawks' PDO is 0.974 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Things to watch
- The Panthers own the underlying play — 52.9% 5v5 xG vs 42.2%.
- The Panthers drive Corsi at 55.7% — expect territorial tilt.
- Goalie matchup: S. Knight (+3.8 GSAx in 12 GP, 89.4% SV) vs J. Markstrom (+0.0 GSAx in 7 GP, 89.0% SV).
- The Panthers are the hotter team by points pace (6-4-0 over their last 10).
- The Blackhawks are underwater at -14 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Panthers' PDO is 0.971 — running cold, due for positive regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
CHI
vs COL · Mon, Nov 2
Expected in goal
S. Knight
1 day rest.857 last start58:54 played
Backup Arvid Soderblom · -3.6 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- R. Donato12:36
- O. Moore14:53
- A. Frondell17:33
- R. Greene18:40
- C. Smith12:24
- A. Mangiapane10:18
- T. Bertuzzi18:02
- R. Kantserov16:31
- T. Teravainen13:19
- P. Kane10:20
- F. Nazar21:42
- C. Bedard21:19
Defence · 6
- S. Rinzel16:32
- I. Cole15:31
- E. Del Mastro12:08
- W. Kaiser19:12
- A. Levshunov20:06
- A. Vlasic21:32
FLA
vs DET · Mon, Nov 2
Expected in goal
J. Markstrom
1 day rest.857 last start57:33 played
Backup Akira Schmid · -0.2 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- B. Tkachuk19:20
- S. Bennett18:59
- S. Reinhart20:13
- B. Imama04:28
- A. Lundell19:28
- M. Tkachuk20:31
- L. Eller17:21
- G. Hathaway06:25
- C. Verhaeghe18:52
- E. Luostarinen18:46
- C. Schwindt04:32
- S. Vilmanis13:35
Defence · 6
- S. Jones27:23
- A. Ekblad20:22
- R. Gudas12:06
- D. Kulikov12:43
- G. Forsling20:02
- N. Mikkola21:34
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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