STRENGTHOTT
Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall
Linus Ullmark: +8.3 GSAx over 8 games (0.945 SV%).
Preview · OTT at BUF
Senators at Sabres: a true toss-up
The model's leanWed, Nov 4
Written from the numbers
The read
Edited for clarity
◆ By the ModelNov 4, 9:01 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works
This is a coin flip, and the margins will decide it.
The model gives the Senators a 51% chance to win. It projects both teams to score 3.3 goals.
Linus Ullmark has been a season-long wall. He has stopped 8.3 more goals than expected over 8 games. His 0.945 save percentage says the same thing.
The Sabres are the hotter side by points pace, going 5-2-3 over their last 10. The Senators are underwater, at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
The Senators' shooting and save results are running hot, so expect some regression. The table below shows how far that luck runs at five-on-five.
| Metric | OTT | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| xG% | 53.2% | 50.5% |
| Corsi% | 48.7% | 51.6% |
| PDO | 1.026 | 0.993 |
In the goalie matchup, J. Johansson has allowed 4.3 more goals than expected in 4 games. His save percentage is 84.8%.
U. Luukkonen has allowed 2.7 more goals than expected across 10 games. His save percentage is 87.4%.
Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model
Live from the league
The game, as it happens
Puck drop 7:30 PM ET
Once the puck drops, every goal and every shot lands here as it happens — the scorer, the clock, and the shot map with the replay — straight from the league's feed. The desk writes the recap after the final horn.
Win probability
The model's lean
OTT 51%
51%
OTT
Model favorite
51%
49%
OTT50BUF
OTT by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score OTT 3.3–3.3 BUF; 16% chance it's tied after 60.
Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
New to these numbers?
This is a preview, so every number on it is about form and rates — what each club has been doing, not what it will do tonight.
The strip above is the model's lean, built from each side's chance creation and prevention, goaltending, rest and home ice. It is not a betting line and nobody here is telling you to wager on it. Full glossary →
- Win prob
- How often this matchup ends in a win for that club, over many simulated tries. It is a lean, not a prediction — 60% teams lose plenty.
- xGF/60
- Expected goals a club creates per sixty minutes of play — its scoring-chance rate, independent of how many games it has played.
- xGA/60
- The same rate for chances it gives up. Lower is better.
- PDO
- Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge that drifts back toward 1.000. Well above it flags a club that has been running hot.
Season rates · 5v5
Tale of the tape
NHL stats API · our xG
OTT← edge
edge →BUF
53.2%50.5%
48.7%51.6%
3.423.44
3.003.37
3.133.07
3.193.43
1.0260.993
OTT holds 4 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.026 vs 0.993) says OTT has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.
Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
Form · Last 10
OTT
4-5-1
-6 GD · 2d rest
BUF
5-2-3
-1 GD · 3d rest
1.026
OTT PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
0.993
BUF PDO
Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
What decides it
Keys to the game
WARNINGOTT
Regression watch: Senators
The Senators' PDO is 1.026 — running hot, expect some regression.
Weight the underlying numbers over the recent results.
TACTICAL
A true toss-up
Win probability splits 49%–51% — margins decide this one.
TACTICALOTT
J. Johansson was beatable last time out
J. Johansson stopped just 81.8% in his last start.
Regression watch
- The Senators' PDO is 1.026 — running hot, expect some regression.
Things to watch
- Goalie matchup: J. Johansson (-4.3 GSAx in 4 GP, 84.8% SV) vs U. Luukkonen (-2.7 GSAx in 10 GP, 87.4% SV).
- The Sabres are the hotter team by points pace (5-2-3 over their last 10).
- The Senators are underwater at -6 goal differential over their last 10.
- The Senators' PDO is 1.026 — running hot, expect some regression.
Last game's lineup · confirmed at warm-up
Lineups
NHL box score
OTT
vs ANA · Sun, Nov 1
Expected in goal
J. Johansson
2 days rest.818 last start60:00 played
Backup Linus Ullmark · +8.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- S. Pinto18:58
- T. Stützle22:54
- D. Batherson16:19
- F. Zetterlund15:09
- N. Cousins10:18
- M. Amadio17:18
- D. Cozens16:57
- C. Giroux14:02
- S. Halliday10:02
- X. Bourgault02:49
- P. Tomasino11:18
- R. Greig17:32
Defence · 6
- A. Zub18:53
- J. Spence17:39
- N. Matinpalo16:19
- T. Kleven18:11
- T. Chabot19:27
- J. Sanderson23:59
BUF
vs LAK · Sat, Oct 31
Expected in goal
U. Luukkonen
3 days rest.931 last start60:00 played
Backup Colten Ellis · -0.3 GSAx this season
Forwards · 12
- Z. Benson23:20
- J. Norris09:12
- S. Carrick07:37
- J. Zucker08:47
- P. Krebs15:41
- J. Quinn17:31
- B. Malenstyn12:54
- T. Kozak11:27
- R. McLeod14:25
- T. Thompson20:09
- N. Ostlund18:14
- J. Doan13:22
Defence · 6
- O. Zellweger19:51
- M. Samuelsson25:59
- O. Power27:12
- R. Dahlin23:21
- L. Crevier10:26
- Z. Metsa10:22
Lineups are the players who dressed in each club's last game, with their minutes; clubs confirm tonight's at warm-up. Every player this preview names was in that lineup.
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