WARNINGEDM
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 34 rush shots worth 2.17 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Edmonton Oilers
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Oilersactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): EDM 3 - 4 NJD (SO) — a shootout loss to the Devils.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 34 rush shots worth 2.17 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Season complete · final ledger
99
Games filed
53
Wins (all)
46
Losses (all)
346
Goals for
312
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · EDM @ NJD · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionEDMNJD
Offense
▸Basis
EDM Created 2.32 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.70 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.16 xG).
NJD Created 3.00 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 34 rush shots (2.17 xG).
C
75
B-
80
Defense
▸Basis
EDM Allowed 3.00 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 34 rush shots (2.17 xG).
NJD Allowed 2.32 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.70 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.16 xG).
C-
70
C
75
Transition
▸Basis
EDM Rush shots 22–34, rush xG 2.16–2.17 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NJD Rush shots 34–22, rush xG 2.17–2.16 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
69
B-
81
Special teams
▸Basis
EDM 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.52 PP xG.
NJD 2-for-5 on the power play (40%; league ≈21%) with 1.00 PP xG.
A+
100
A
96
Goaltending
▸Basis
EDM +0.00 goals saved above expected on 34 shots against.
NJD -0.68 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
C
75
D+
68
Discipline
▸Basis
EDM Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
NJD Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
EDM Finishing +0.68 goals vs xG plus +0.00 GSAx of save luck = +0.68 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
NJD Finishing +0.00 goals vs xG plus -0.68 GSAx of save luck = -0.68 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B-
80
C-
70
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHEDM
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 22 rush shots worth 2.16 xG.
STRENGTHEDM
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 0.52 PP xG.
WARNINGEDM
Rebound control was shaky
Allowed 6 rebound chances worth 0.39 xG (1 converted).
Box out earlier and get the goalie help clearing second chances.
STRENGTHEDM
E. Bouchard made a difference
1G 1A in 27:26 — the game's second star.
Warning signs
WARNINGEDM
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 34 rush shots worth 2.17 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGEDM
Rebound control was shaky
Allowed 6 rebound chances worth 0.39 xG (1 converted).
Box out earlier and get the goalie help clearing second chances.
Positive trends
STRENGTHEDM
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 22 rush shots worth 2.16 xG.
STRENGTHEDM
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 0.52 PP xG.
STRENGTHEDM
E. Bouchard made a difference
1G 1A in 27:26 — the game's second star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseCavg 89▼ DECLINING
DefenseC-avg 75▼ DECLINING
TransitionD+avg 82▼ DECLINING
Special teamsA+avg 90▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingCavg 90▼ DECLINING
DisciplineC-avg 84▼ DECLINING
LuckB-avg 89▼ DECLINING
EDM latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
13/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 28th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
45,899
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
12
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
9
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
4,440 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d48
2d18
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
22 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 42 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 3,927 travel miles
Nov 15 – Nov 24
6 games in 11 days with 4,293 travel miles
Mar 31 – Apr 10
6 games in 11 days with 4,074 travel miles
Oct 26 – Nov 5
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Box out earlier and get the goalie help clearing second chances.
Rebound control was shakycoach