WARNINGFLA
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.94 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Florida Panthers
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Mon, Nov 22026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Panthersactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Mon, Nov 2): DET 5 - 3 FLA — a loss to the Red Wings.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.94 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Next opponent
Last game report card · DET @ FLA · Mon, Nov 2
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionDETFLA
Offense
▸Basis
DET Created 3.88 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 7 high-danger shots (1.83 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.94 xG).
FLA Created 4.09 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.13 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.80 xG).
A+
99
A+
97
Defense
▸Basis
DET Allowed 4.09 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.13 xG) and 30 rush shots (2.80 xG).
FLA Allowed 3.88 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 7 high-danger shots (1.83 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.94 xG).
F
53
F
51
Transition
▸Basis
DET Rush shots 26–30, rush xG 2.94–2.80 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
FLA Rush shots 30–26, rush xG 2.80–2.94 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
C
74
C
76
Special teams
▸Basis
DET 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 1.11 PP xG.
FLA 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.08 PP xG.
A
96
C-
70
Goaltending
▸Basis
DET +1.09 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.
FLA -0.12 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.
B
86
C
74
Discipline
▸Basis
DET Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
FLA Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
DET Finishing +1.12 goals vs xG plus +1.09 GSAx of save luck = +2.21 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
FLA Finishing -1.09 goals vs xG plus -0.12 GSAx of save luck = -1.21 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A
93
D
65
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHFLA
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 30 rush shots worth 2.80 xG.
TACTICALFLA
Crashed the crease
13 rebound chances (1 converted, 1.07 xG) — net-front presence created second looks.
Keep sending traffic — the rebound game traveled.
LUCKFLA
Wasted the best looks
0-for-5 on high-danger chances worth 1.13 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.
LUCKFLA
PDO ran cold
Single-game PDO of 0.935 — the bounces went against them tonight.
Warning signs
WARNINGFLA
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.94 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Positive trends
STRENGTHFLA
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 30 rush shots worth 2.80 xG.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseA+avg 96→ FLAT
DefenseFavg 65▼ DECLINING
TransitionCavg 83▼ DECLINING
Special teamsC-avg 85▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingCavg 89▼ DECLINING
DisciplineC-avg 75▼ DECLINING
LuckDavg 83▼ DECLINING
FLA latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
AVERAGE
Load index
65/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 12th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
47,083
road miles flown
14
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
15
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
12
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
4,669 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d14
1d41
2d21
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
20 games with more rest than the opponent · 21 with fewer · 41 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 3,585 travel miles
Nov 7 – Nov 15
6 games in 11 days with 4,726 travel miles
Dec 30 – Jan 9
6 games in 11 days with 4,600 travel miles
Feb 20 – Mar 2
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Keep sending traffic — the rebound game traveled.
Crashed the creasecoach