STRENGTHMTLfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 23 rush shots worth 1.76 xG.
66
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
Montreal Canadiens
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Sat, Sep 192025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Sep 19): MTL 4 - 1 TOR — a win over the Maple Leafs.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 2 goals on 23 rush shots worth 1.76 xG.
Canadiens: a possession-driving team (57.4% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending, flagged for regression (1 signals).
Season complete · final ledger
84
Games filed
50
Wins (all)
34
Losses (all)
291
Goals for
260
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · MTL @ TOR · Sat, Sep 19
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionMTLTOR
Offense
▸Basis
MTL Created 3.64 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.76 xG).
TOR Created 2.91 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.03 xG).
B+
89
B-
80
Defense
▸Basis
MTL Allowed 2.91 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.42 xG) and 26 rush shots (2.03 xG).
TOR Allowed 3.64 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (1.17 xG) and 23 rush shots (1.76 xG).
C-
70
D-
61
Transition
▸Basis
MTL Rush shots 23–26, rush xG 1.76–2.03 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
TOR Rush shots 26–23, rush xG 2.03–1.76 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
C-
71
C+
79
Special teams
▸Basis
MTL 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.27 PP xG.
TOR 1-for-6 on the power play (17%; league ≈21%) with 1.32 PP xG.
F
52
C
73
Goaltending
▸Basis
MTL +1.91 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
TOR +0.64 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.
A
94
B-
81
Discipline
▸Basis
MTL Took 7 penalties for 17 PIM vs 4 for 11 on the other side.
TOR Took 4 penalties for 11 PIM vs 7 for 17 on the other side.
D-
60
A-
90
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
MTL Finishing +0.36 goals vs xG plus +1.91 GSAx of save luck = +2.27 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
TOR Finishing -1.91 goals vs xG plus +0.64 GSAx of save luck = -1.27 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A
93
D
65
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGMTLfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.03 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
61
IMP
WARNINGMTLfancoachgm
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 7 penalties for 17 minutes (opponent: 4 for 11).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
57
IMP
STRENGTHMTLfancoach
S. Montembeault tilted the crease
S. Montembeault stopped 13 of 13 (1.000), +1.52 goals above expected.
56
IMP
TACTICALMTLfan
The moment it turned
Samuel Poulin's tip-in from the doorstep in P3 swung the game.
52
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGMTLfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 26 rush shots worth 2.03 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
61
IMP
WARNINGMTLfancoachgm
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 7 penalties for 17 minutes (opponent: 4 for 11).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
57
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHMTLfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 23 rush shots worth 1.76 xG.
66
IMP
STRENGTHMTLfancoach
S. Montembeault tilted the crease
S. Montembeault stopped 13 of 13 (1.000), +1.52 goals above expected.
56
IMP
STRENGTHMTLfan
P. Danault led the way
2G in 22:21 — the game's first star.
50
IMP
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB+avg 98▼ DECLINING
DefenseC-avg 70→ FLAT
TransitionC-avg 85▼ DECLINING
Special teamsFavg 100▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingAavg 73▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineD-avg 90▼ DECLINING
LuckAavg 73▲ IMPROVING
MTL latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Regression watch
- PDO 1.019 — running hot at 5v5; expect negative regression.
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
0/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 32nd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
39,518
road miles flown
10
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
8
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
10
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
4
Longest road trip
3,145 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d10
1d48
2d19
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
25 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 36 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 2,686 travel miles
Jan 13 – Jan 21
6 games in 13 days with 5,672 travel miles
Feb 20 – Mar 4
6 games in 10 days with 2,874 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 4
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Paraded to the penalty boxcoachgm