WARNINGMTL
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 35 rush shots worth 4.30 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Montreal Canadiens
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Canadiensactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): WPG 5 - 4 MTL (OT) — an overtime loss to the Jets.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 35 rush shots worth 4.30 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Season complete · final ledger
99
Games filed
59
Wins (all)
40
Losses (all)
342
Goals for
307
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · WPG @ MTL · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionWPGMTL
Offense
▸Basis
WPG Created 6.08 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 12 high-danger shots (2.78 xG) and 35 rush shots (4.30 xG).
MTL Created 3.51 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.12 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.22 xG).
A+
100
B+
89
Defense
▸Basis
WPG Allowed 3.51 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.12 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.22 xG).
MTL Allowed 6.08 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 12 high-danger shots (2.78 xG) and 35 rush shots (4.30 xG).
D-
61
F
20
Transition
▸Basis
WPG Rush shots 35–20, rush xG 4.30–2.22 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
MTL Rush shots 20–35, rush xG 2.22–4.30 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
A+
100
F
47
Special teams
▸Basis
WPG 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.63 PP xG.
MTL 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 1.01 PP xG.
D-
61
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
WPG -0.49 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
MTL +1.08 goals saved above expected on 47 shots against.
C-
70
B
86
Discipline
▸Basis
WPG Took 7 penalties for 20 PIM vs 8 for 22 on the other side.
MTL Took 8 penalties for 22 PIM vs 7 for 20 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
WPG Finishing -1.08 goals vs xG plus -0.49 GSAx of save luck = -1.57 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
MTL Finishing +0.49 goals vs xG plus +1.08 GSAx of save luck = +1.57 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
D-
62
B+
88
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHMTL
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 20 rush shots worth 2.22 xG.
STRENGTHMTL
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 1.01 PP xG.
LUCKMTL
Wasted the best looks
0-for-5 on high-danger chances worth 1.12 xG — that conversion rate won't stay at zero.
WARNINGMTL
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 8 penalties for 22 minutes (opponent: 7 for 20).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Warning signs
WARNINGMTL
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 35 rush shots worth 4.30 xG (4 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGMTL
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 8 penalties for 22 minutes (opponent: 7 for 20).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Positive trends
STRENGTHMTL
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 20 rush shots worth 2.22 xG.
STRENGTHMTL
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 1.01 PP xG.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB+avg 94▼ DECLINING
DefenseFavg 55▼ DECLINING
TransitionFavg 70▼ DECLINING
Special teamsA+avg 59▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingBavg 89→ FLAT
DisciplineC-avg 71→ FLAT
LuckB+avg 90→ FLAT
MTL latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
0/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 32nd-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
39,518
road miles flown
10
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
8
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
10
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
4
Longest road trip
3,145 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d10
1d48
2d19
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
25 games with more rest than the opponent · 22 with fewer · 36 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 2,686 travel miles
Jan 13 – Jan 21
6 games in 13 days with 5,672 travel miles
Feb 20 – Mar 4
6 games in 10 days with 2,874 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 4
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Paraded to the penalty boxcoachgm