WARNINGNJD
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.16 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
New Jersey Devils
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Devilsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): EDM 3 - 4 NJD (SO) — a shootout win over the Oilers.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.16 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Season complete · final ledger
98
Games filed
53
Wins (all)
45
Losses (all)
284
Goals for
297
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · EDM @ NJD · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionEDMNJD
Offense
▸Basis
EDM Created 2.32 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 2 high-danger shots (0.70 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.16 xG).
NJD Created 3.00 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 34 rush shots (2.17 xG).
C
75
B-
80
Defense
▸Basis
EDM Allowed 3.00 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.19 xG) and 34 rush shots (2.17 xG).
NJD Allowed 2.32 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 2 high-danger shots (0.70 xG) and 22 rush shots (2.16 xG).
C-
70
C
75
Transition
▸Basis
EDM Rush shots 22–34, rush xG 2.16–2.17 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NJD Rush shots 34–22, rush xG 2.17–2.16 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
69
B-
81
Special teams
▸Basis
EDM 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.52 PP xG.
NJD 2-for-5 on the power play (40%; league ≈21%) with 1.00 PP xG.
A+
100
A
96
Goaltending
▸Basis
EDM +0.00 goals saved above expected on 34 shots against.
NJD -0.68 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
C
75
D+
68
Discipline
▸Basis
EDM Took 5 penalties for 10 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
NJD Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 5 for 10 on the other side.
C-
70
B-
80
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
EDM Finishing +0.68 goals vs xG plus +0.00 GSAx of save luck = +0.68 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
NJD Finishing +0.00 goals vs xG plus -0.68 GSAx of save luck = -0.68 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B-
80
C-
70
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHNJD
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 34 rush shots worth 2.17 xG.
STRENGTHNJD
Power play cashed in
2-for-5 on the power play (40%) on 1.00 PP xG.
STRENGTHNJD
J. Hughes led the way
2G 1A in 25:17 — the game's first star.
TACTICALNJD
The moment it turned
Arseny Gritsyuk's wrist shot from the doorstep in the shootout swung the game.
Warning signs
WARNINGNJD
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 22 rush shots worth 2.16 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Positive trends
STRENGTHNJD
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 34 rush shots worth 2.17 xG.
STRENGTHNJD
Power play cashed in
2-for-5 on the power play (40%) on 1.00 PP xG.
STRENGTHNJD
J. Hughes led the way
2G 1A in 25:17 — the game's first star.
STRENGTHNJD
Won on the merits
The Devils controlled 56% of expected goals (3.00–2.32) and won 4-3 in a shootout — result matched process.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB-avg 87▼ DECLINING
DefenseCavg 73→ FLAT
TransitionB-avg 82→ FLAT
Special teamsAavg 60▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingD+avg 78▼ DECLINING
DisciplineB-avg 84▼ DECLINING
LuckC-avg 80▼ DECLINING
NJD latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
STRONG
Load index
77/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 8th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
36,760
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
17
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
16
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
7
Longest road trip
6,625 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d46
2d17
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
21 games with more rest than the opponent · 21 with fewer · 41 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 9 days with 2,710 travel miles
Jan 23 – Jan 31
6 games in 12 days with 5,415 travel miles
Dec 27 – Jan 7
6 games in 11 days with 3,947 travel miles
Feb 13 – Feb 23
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Keep sending traffic — the rebound game traveled.
Crashed the creasecoach