STRENGTHNSH
J. Saros stole it
J. Saros stopped 29 of 30 (0.967) — +2.80 goals saved above expected in a 3-goal game.
Morning report · executive brief
Nashville Predators
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Predatorsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): CAR 1 - 4 NSH — a win over the Hurricanes.
The model's top flag from that game: j. saros stole it — J. Saros stopped 29 of 30 (0.967) — +2.80 goals saved above expected in a 3-goal game.
Season complete · final ledger
99
Games filed
44
Wins (all)
55
Losses (all)
297
Goals for
325
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · CAR @ NSH · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionCARNSH
Offense
▸Basis
CAR Created 3.80 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.59 xG) and 35 rush shots (2.88 xG).
NSH Created 3.36 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.34 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.64 xG).
A
93
A-
90
Defense
▸Basis
CAR Allowed 3.36 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.34 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.64 xG).
NSH Allowed 3.80 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.59 xG) and 35 rush shots (2.88 xG).
D-
60
F
57
Transition
▸Basis
CAR Rush shots 35–25, rush xG 2.88–2.64 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NSH Rush shots 25–35, rush xG 2.64–2.88 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
B-
82
D+
68
Special teams
▸Basis
CAR 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.09 PP xG.
NSH 0-for-2 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.07 PP xG.
C-
70
D+
69
Goaltending
▸Basis
CAR +0.36 goals saved above expected on 19 shots against.
NSH +2.80 goals saved above expected on 30 shots against.
C+
79
A+
100
Discipline
▸Basis
CAR Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
NSH Took 2 penalties for 4 PIM vs 2 for 4 on the other side.
C
75
C
75
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
CAR Finishing -2.80 goals vs xG plus +0.36 GSAx of save luck = -2.44 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
NSH Finishing +0.64 goals vs xG plus +2.80 GSAx of save luck = +3.44 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
F
55
A+
100
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHNSH
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.64 xG.
WARNINGNSH
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 35 rush shots worth 2.88 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
STRENGTHNSH
Clinical in the slot
2 goals on 4 high-danger shots (50% conversion on 1.34 xG).
LUCKNSH
PDO ran hot
Single-game PDO of 1.060 — the bounces went their way tonight.
Warning signs
WARNINGNSH
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 35 rush shots worth 2.88 xG (1 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Positive trends
STRENGTHNSH
J. Saros stole it
J. Saros stopped 29 of 30 (0.967) — +2.80 goals saved above expected in a 3-goal game.
STRENGTHNSH
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.64 xG.
STRENGTHNSH
Clinical in the slot
2 goals on 4 high-danger shots (50% conversion on 1.34 xG).
STRENGTHNSH
R. Josi led the way
1G 1A in 24:30 — the game's first star.
STRENGTHNSH
F. Forsberg made a difference
2A in 16:47 — the game's second star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseA-avg 94▼ DECLINING
DefenseFavg 57→ FLAT
TransitionD+avg 75▼ DECLINING
Special teamsD+avg 90▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingA+avg 78▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineCavg 80▼ DECLINING
LuckA+avg 78▲ IMPROVING
NSH latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
AVERAGE
Load index
55/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 15th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
40,975
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
16
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
17
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
3,986 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d49
2d18
3+d5
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
24 games with more rest than the opponent · 17 with fewer · 42 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 12 days with 5,443 travel miles
Mar 9 – Mar 20
6 games in 11 days with 4,203 travel miles
Dec 5 – Dec 15
6 games in 11 days with 4,071 travel miles
Jan 18 – Jan 28
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach