STRENGTHNYR
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 31 rush shots worth 3.18 xG.
Morning report · executive brief
New York Rangers
◆ By the ModelThu, Nov 5Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Rangersactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): STL 1 - 3 NYR — a win over the Blues.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 2 goals on 31 rush shots worth 3.18 xG.
Next opponent
Last game report card · STL @ NYR · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionSTLNYR
Offense
▸Basis
STL Created 2.92 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.22 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.34 xG).
NYR Created 5.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (2.54 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.18 xG).
B-
80
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis
STL Allowed 5.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (2.54 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.18 xG).
NYR Allowed 2.92 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.22 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.34 xG).
F
35
C-
70
Transition
▸Basis
STL Rush shots 27–31, rush xG 2.34–3.18 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NYR Rush shots 31–27, rush xG 3.18–2.34 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D
65
B
85
Special teams
▸Basis
STL 0-for-6 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.97 PP xG.
NYR 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.36 PP xG.
F
54
D
66
Goaltending
▸Basis
STL +3.18 goals saved above expected on 30 shots against.
NYR +1.92 goals saved above expected on 33 shots against.
A+
100
A
94
Discipline
▸Basis
STL Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.
NYR Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
A-
90
D-
60
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
STL Finishing -1.92 goals vs xG plus +3.18 GSAx of save luck = +1.26 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
NYR Finishing -2.18 goals vs xG plus +1.92 GSAx of save luck = -0.26 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B
85
C
73
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
LUCKNYR
Cold finishing night
Scored 3 on 5.18 xG — -2.18 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
WARNINGNYR
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 27 rush shots worth 2.34 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
STRENGTHNYR
D. Garand tilted the crease
D. Garand stopped 32 of 33 (0.970), +1.92 goals above expected.
STRENGTHNYR
Won on the merits
The Rangers controlled 64% of expected goals (5.18–2.92) and won 3-1 — result matched process.
Warning signs
WARNINGNYR
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 27 rush shots worth 2.34 xG (0 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGNYR
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 6 penalties for 12 minutes (opponent: 3 for 6).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Positive trends
STRENGTHNYR
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 31 rush shots worth 3.18 xG.
STRENGTHNYR
D. Garand tilted the crease
D. Garand stopped 32 of 33 (0.970), +1.92 goals above expected.
STRENGTHNYR
Won on the merits
The Rangers controlled 64% of expected goals (5.18–2.92) and won 3-1 — result matched process.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseA+avg 81▲ IMPROVING
DefenseC-avg 50▲ IMPROVING
TransitionBavg 68▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsDavg 74▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingAavg 67▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineD-avg 63→ FLAT
LuckCavg 63▲ IMPROVING
NYR latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
19/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 26th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
38,449
road miles flown
11
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
16
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
4
Longest road trip
3,559 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d11
1d51
2d14
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 26 with fewer · 32 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 5,469 travel miles
Mar 6 – Mar 16
6 games in 12 days with 6,249 travel miles
Dec 29 – Jan 9
6 games in 12 days with 5,984 travel miles
Nov 5 – Nov 16
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Paraded to the penalty boxcoachgm