LUCKPHI
Cold finishing night
Scored 2 on 4.02 xG — -2.02 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
Morning report · executive brief
Philadelphia Flyers
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Flyersactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): MIN 4 - 2 PHI — a loss to the Wild.
The model's top flag from that game: cold finishing night — Scored 2 on 4.02 xG — -2.02 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
Season complete · final ledger
100
Games filed
45
Wins (all)
55
Losses (all)
284
Goals for
312
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · MIN @ PHI · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionMINPHI
Offense
▸Basis
MIN Created 3.56 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
PHI Created 4.02 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
B
84
B+
88
Defense
▸Basis
MIN Allowed 4.02 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
PHI Allowed 3.56 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
D-
62
D
66
Special teams
▸Basis
MIN 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.47 PP xG.
PHI 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 0.65 PP xG.
F
54
A-
90
Goaltending
▸Basis
MIN +2.02 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
PHI +0.56 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.
A
95
B-
81
Discipline
▸Basis
MIN Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 4 for 16 on the other side.
PHI Took 4 penalties for 16 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
A+
100
F
50
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
MIN Finishing +0.44 goals vs xG plus +2.02 GSAx of save luck = +2.46 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
PHI Finishing -2.02 goals vs xG plus +0.56 GSAx of save luck = -1.46 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A
95
D
63
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGPHI
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 4 penalties for 16 minutes (opponent: 3 for 6).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
STRENGTHPHI
Power play cashed in
1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 0.65 PP xG.
STRENGTHPHI
J. Drysdale made a difference
1A in 26:50 — the game's third star.
Warning signs
WARNINGPHI
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 4 penalties for 16 minutes (opponent: 3 for 6).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Positive trends
STRENGTHPHI
Power play cashed in
1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 0.65 PP xG.
STRENGTHPHI
J. Drysdale made a difference
1A in 26:50 — the game's third star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB+avg 87→ FLAT
DefenseDavg 53▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsA-avg 68▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingB-avg 73▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineFavg 80▼ DECLINING
LuckDavg 77▼ DECLINING
PHI latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
23/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 25th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
34,394
road miles flown
12
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
13
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
9
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
4,737 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d12
1d45
2d22
3+d4
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
22 games with more rest than the opponent · 19 with fewer · 41 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 11 days with 5,066 travel miles
Nov 5 – Nov 15
6 games in 10 days with 3,774 travel miles
Jan 3 – Jan 12
6 games in 12 days with 4,473 travel miles
Mar 5 – Mar 16
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Paraded to the penalty boxcoachgm