STRENGTHPIT
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.96 xG.
Morning report · executive brief
Pittsburgh Penguins
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Penguinsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): VGK 3 - 2 PIT — a loss to the Golden Knights.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 2 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.96 xG.
Season complete · final ledger
97
Games filed
47
Wins (all)
50
Losses (all)
341
Goals for
317
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · VGK @ PIT · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionVGKPIT
Offense
▸Basis
VGK Created 2.85 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.25 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.51 xG).
PIT Created 3.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.29 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.96 xG).
B
84
A
95
Defense
▸Basis
VGK Allowed 3.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.29 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.96 xG).
PIT Allowed 2.85 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.25 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.51 xG).
F
55
D
66
Transition
▸Basis
VGK Rush shots 21–25, rush xG 2.51–2.96 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
PIT Rush shots 25–21, rush xG 2.96–2.51 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
68
B-
82
Special teams
▸Basis
VGK 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.96 PP xG.
PIT 0-for-6 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.81 PP xG.
A+
100
F
53
Goaltending
▸Basis
VGK +1.75 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
PIT -0.15 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.
A
93
C
74
Discipline
▸Basis
VGK Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
PIT Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.
D
65
B
85
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
VGK Finishing +0.15 goals vs xG plus +1.75 GSAx of save luck = +1.90 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
PIT Finishing -1.75 goals vs xG plus -0.15 GSAx of save luck = -1.90 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A-
90
D-
60
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGPIT
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.51 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
STRENGTHPIT
Clinical in the slot
2 goals on 4 high-danger shots (50% conversion on 1.29 xG).
LUCKPIT
Cold finishing night
Scored 2 on 3.75 xG — -1.75 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
WARNINGPIT
Power play came up empty
0-for-6 with the man advantage on 0.81 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Warning signs
WARNINGPIT
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 21 rush shots worth 2.51 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGPIT
Power play came up empty
0-for-6 with the man advantage on 0.81 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
WARNINGPIT
Deserved a better fate
The Penguins controlled 57% of expected goals (3.75 to 2.85) and still lost — the process was there, the finish wasn't.
Change nothing structurally — this loss was variance, not process.
Positive trends
STRENGTHPIT
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 25 rush shots worth 2.96 xG.
STRENGTHPIT
Clinical in the slot
2 goals on 4 high-danger shots (50% conversion on 1.29 xG).
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseAavg 94→ FLAT
DefenseDavg 54▲ IMPROVING
TransitionB-avg 74▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsFavg 65▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingCavg 75→ FLAT
DisciplineBavg 78▲ IMPROVING
LuckD-avg 69▼ DECLINING
PIT latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
STRONG
Load index
74/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 9th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
31,480
road miles flown
15
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
18
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
4,035 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d15
1d42
2d20
3+d6
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
26 games with more rest than the opponent · 29 with fewer · 28 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 12 days with 4,737 travel miles
Nov 3 – Nov 14
6 games in 10 days with 3,080 travel miles
Feb 28 – Mar 9
6 games in 10 days with 2,514 travel miles
Nov 19 – Nov 28
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach - 03
Change nothing structurally — this loss was variance, not process.
Deserved a better fatecoachgm