STRENGTHSTL
J. Hofer stole it
J. Hofer stopped 28 of 30 (0.933) — +3.18 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
Morning report · executive brief
St. Louis Blues
◆ By the ModelThu, Nov 5Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Bluesactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): STL 1 - 3 NYR — a loss to the Rangers.
The model's top flag from that game: j. hofer stole it — J. Hofer stopped 28 of 30 (0.933) — +3.18 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
Next opponent
Last game report card · STL @ NYR · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionSTLNYR
Offense
▸Basis
STL Created 2.92 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 1 high-danger shots (0.22 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.34 xG).
NYR Created 5.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 6 high-danger shots (2.54 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.18 xG).
B-
80
A+
100
Defense
▸Basis
STL Allowed 5.18 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 6 high-danger shots (2.54 xG) and 31 rush shots (3.18 xG).
NYR Allowed 2.92 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 1 high-danger shots (0.22 xG) and 27 rush shots (2.34 xG).
F
35
C-
70
Transition
▸Basis
STL Rush shots 27–31, rush xG 2.34–3.18 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
NYR Rush shots 31–27, rush xG 3.18–2.34 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D
65
B
85
Special teams
▸Basis
STL 0-for-6 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.97 PP xG.
NYR 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.36 PP xG.
F
54
D
66
Goaltending
▸Basis
STL +3.18 goals saved above expected on 30 shots against.
NYR +1.92 goals saved above expected on 33 shots against.
A+
100
A
94
Discipline
▸Basis
STL Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.
NYR Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
A-
90
D-
60
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
STL Finishing -1.92 goals vs xG plus +3.18 GSAx of save luck = +1.26 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
NYR Finishing -2.18 goals vs xG plus +1.92 GSAx of save luck = -0.26 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B
85
C
73
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGSTL
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 31 rush shots worth 3.18 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
LUCKSTL
Cold finishing night
Scored 1 on 2.92 xG — -1.92 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
STRENGTHSTL
Dangerous off the rush
0 goals on 27 rush shots worth 2.34 xG.
WARNINGSTL
Power play came up empty
0-for-6 with the man advantage on 0.97 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Warning signs
WARNINGSTL
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 31 rush shots worth 3.18 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGSTL
Power play came up empty
0-for-6 with the man advantage on 0.97 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Positive trends
STRENGTHSTL
J. Hofer stole it
J. Hofer stopped 28 of 30 (0.933) — +3.18 goals saved above expected in a 2-goal game.
STRENGTHSTL
Dangerous off the rush
0 goals on 27 rush shots worth 2.34 xG.
STRENGTHSTL
J. Hofer was perfect on high danger
J. Hofer stopped all 5 high-danger shots he faced (100% HD save rate).
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseB-avg 94▼ DECLINING
DefenseFavg 60▼ DECLINING
TransitionDavg 77▼ DECLINING
Special teamsFavg 66▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingA+avg 82▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineA-avg 78▲ IMPROVING
LuckBavg 67▲ IMPROVING
STL latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
STRONG
Load index
84/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 6th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
44,517
road miles flown
12
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
15
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
14
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
3,958 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d12
1d50
2d14
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 23 with fewer · 37 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,112 travel miles
Feb 12 – Feb 21
6 games in 10 days with 3,831 travel miles
Dec 27 – Jan 5
6 games in 9 days with 2,806 travel miles
Mar 20 – Mar 28
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach