WARNINGSTLfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 2.08 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
74
IMP
Morning report · executive brief
St. Louis Blues
◆ By the ModelMon, Sep 21Latest file · Sat, Sep 192025-26last season· this season's sample isn't live yetAs of Sun, Sep 20
Executive summary
Last time out (Sat, Sep 19): DAL 2 - 1 STL — a loss to the Stars.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 20 rush shots worth 2.08 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Blues: a balanced team (51.8% 5v5 xG) with league-average goaltending.
Season complete · final ledger
83
Games filed
37
Wins (all)
46
Losses (all)
232
Goals for
260
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · DAL @ STL · Sat, Sep 19
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionDALSTL
Offense
▸Basis
DAL Created 2.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.63 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.08 xG).
STL Created 2.95 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 3 high-danger shots (0.67 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.06 xG).
C+
79
B-
81
Defense
▸Basis
DAL Allowed 2.95 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.67 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.06 xG).
STL Allowed 2.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 3 high-danger shots (0.63 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.08 xG).
D+
69
C-
71
Transition
▸Basis
DAL Rush shots 20–20, rush xG 2.08–2.06 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
STL Rush shots 20–20, rush xG 2.06–2.08 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
C
75
C
75
Special teams
▸Basis
DAL 0-for-4 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.78 PP xG.
STL 0-for-3 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.40 PP xG.
F
56
F
53
Goaltending
▸Basis
DAL +1.95 goals saved above expected on 24 shots against.
STL +0.75 goals saved above expected on 28 shots against.
A
94
B-
82
Discipline
▸Basis
DAL Took 5 penalties for 16 PIM vs 6 for 18 on the other side.
STL Took 6 penalties for 18 PIM vs 5 for 16 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
DAL Finishing -0.75 goals vs xG plus +1.95 GSAx of save luck = +1.20 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
STL Finishing -1.95 goals vs xG plus +0.75 GSAx of save luck = -1.20 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
B
85
D
65
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
LUCKSTLfangm
Cold finishing night
Scored 1 on 2.95 xG — -1.95 vs expected. The looks were there; the finish will come back.
65
IMP
STRENGTHSTLfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 20 rush shots worth 2.06 xG.
64
IMP
STRENGTHSTLfancoach
G. Romanov tilted the crease
G. Romanov stopped 10 of 10 (1.000), +0.98 goals above expected.
48
IMP
STRENGTHSTLfan
A. Kaskimaki led the way
1G in 20:22 — the game's first star.
46
IMP
Warning signs
WARNINGSTLfancoach
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 2.08 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
74
IMP
WARNINGSTLfancoachgm
Paraded to the penalty box
Took 6 penalties for 18 minutes (opponent: 5 for 16).
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
45
IMP
WARNINGSTLfancoach
Power play came up empty
0-for-3 with the man advantage on 0.40 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
45
IMP
Positive trends
STRENGTHSTLfancoach
Dangerous off the rush
1 goals on 20 rush shots worth 2.06 xG.
64
IMP
STRENGTHSTLfancoach
G. Romanov tilted the crease
G. Romanov stopped 10 of 10 (1.000), +0.98 goals above expected.
48
IMP
STRENGTHSTLfan
A. Kaskimaki led the way
1G in 20:22 — the game's first star.
46
IMP
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
STRONG
Load index
84/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 6th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
44,517
road miles flown
12
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
15
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
14
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
5
Longest road trip
3,958 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d12
1d50
2d14
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 23 with fewer · 37 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,112 travel miles
Feb 12 – Feb 21
6 games in 10 days with 3,831 travel miles
Dec 27 – Jan 5
6 games in 9 days with 2,806 travel miles
Mar 20 – Mar 28
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Cut the stick infractions — the penalty differential is a controllable.
Paraded to the penalty boxcoachgm - 03
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach