TACTICALTBL
The moment it turned
J.T. Compher's snap shot from the high slot in P3 swung the game.
Morning report · executive brief
Tampa Bay Lightning
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Lightningactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): DET 2 - 4 TBL — a win over the Red Wings.
The model's top flag from that game: the moment it turned — J.T. Compher's snap shot from the high slot in P3 swung the game.
Season complete · final ledger
97
Games filed
59
Wins (all)
38
Losses (all)
339
Goals for
277
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · DET @ TBL · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionDETTBL
Offense
▸Basis
DET Created 3.19 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
TBL Created 4.41 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
B-
80
A-
92
Defense
▸Basis
DET Allowed 4.41 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
TBL Allowed 3.19 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game.
F
58
C-
70
Special teams
▸Basis
DET 1-for-4 on the power play (25%; league ≈21%) with 0.83 PP xG.
TBL 1-for-3 on the power play (33%; league ≈21%) with 1.09 PP xG.
B-
81
A
96
Goaltending
▸Basis
DET +1.41 goals saved above expected on 26 shots against.
TBL +1.19 goals saved above expected on 21 shots against.
B+
89
B+
87
Discipline
▸Basis
DET Took 3 penalties for 6 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
TBL Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 3 for 6 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
DET Finishing -1.19 goals vs xG plus +1.41 GSAx of save luck = +0.22 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
TBL Finishing -0.41 goals vs xG plus +1.19 GSAx of save luck = +0.78 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
C+
77
B-
81
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHTBL
A. Vasilevskiy tilted the crease
A. Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 21 (0.905), +1.19 goals above expected.
STRENGTHTBL
N. Kucherov led the way
2A in 21:40 — the game's first star.
STRENGTHTBL
Power play cashed in
1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 1.09 PP xG.
STRENGTHTBL
Won on the merits
The Lightning controlled 58% of expected goals (4.41–3.19) and won 4-2 — result matched process.
Positive trends
STRENGTHTBL
A. Vasilevskiy tilted the crease
A. Vasilevskiy stopped 19 of 21 (0.905), +1.19 goals above expected.
STRENGTHTBL
N. Kucherov led the way
2A in 21:40 — the game's first star.
STRENGTHTBL
Power play cashed in
1-for-3 on the power play (33%) on 1.09 PP xG.
STRENGTHTBL
Won on the merits
The Lightning controlled 58% of expected goals (4.41–3.19) and won 4-2 — result matched process.
STRENGTHTBL
B. Point made a difference
2G in 18:23 — the game's second star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseA-avg 99▼ DECLINING
DefenseC-avg 50▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsAavg 77▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingB+avg 75▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineC-avg 76▼ DECLINING
LuckB-avg 77▲ IMPROVING
TBL latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
STRONG
Load index
87/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 5th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
47,068
road miles flown
13
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
16
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
4
Longest road trip
4,348 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d13
1d43
2d22
3+d5
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
25 games with more rest than the opponent · 12 with fewer · 46 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,933 travel miles
Feb 27 – Mar 8
6 games in 9 days with 3,600 travel miles
Dec 12 – Dec 20
6 games in 10 days with 3,821 travel miles
Nov 5 – Nov 14
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model