WARNINGVGK
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.96 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Morning report · executive brief
Vegas Golden Knights
◆ By the ModelWed, Nov 4Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Golden Knightsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): VGK 3 - 2 PIT — a win over the Penguins.
The model's top flag from that game: rush defense leaked all night — Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.96 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Season complete · final ledger
99
Games filed
50
Wins (all)
49
Losses (all)
322
Goals for
295
Goals against
No scheduled fixture on file — counts from published recaps; OT/SO losses count as losses
Last game report card · VGK @ PIT · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionVGKPIT
Offense
▸Basis
VGK Created 2.85 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.25 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.51 xG).
PIT Created 3.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 4 high-danger shots (1.29 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.96 xG).
B
84
A
95
Defense
▸Basis
VGK Allowed 3.75 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 4 high-danger shots (1.29 xG) and 25 rush shots (2.96 xG).
PIT Allowed 2.85 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.25 xG) and 21 rush shots (2.51 xG).
F
55
D
66
Transition
▸Basis
VGK Rush shots 21–25, rush xG 2.51–2.96 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
PIT Rush shots 25–21, rush xG 2.96–2.51 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
D+
68
B-
82
Special teams
▸Basis
VGK 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 0.96 PP xG.
PIT 0-for-6 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 0.81 PP xG.
A+
100
F
53
Goaltending
▸Basis
VGK +1.75 goals saved above expected on 25 shots against.
PIT -0.15 goals saved above expected on 23 shots against.
A
93
C
74
Discipline
▸Basis
VGK Took 6 penalties for 12 PIM vs 4 for 8 on the other side.
PIT Took 4 penalties for 8 PIM vs 6 for 12 on the other side.
D
65
B
85
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
VGK Finishing +0.15 goals vs xG plus +1.75 GSAx of save luck = +1.90 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
PIT Finishing -1.75 goals vs xG plus -0.15 GSAx of save luck = -1.90 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
A-
90
D-
60
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
STRENGTHVGK
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.51 xG.
SURPRISEVGK
Won against the run of play
The Golden Knights took it 3-2 with only 43% of expected goals (2.85–3.75).
STRENGTHVGK
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 0.96 PP xG.
STRENGTHVGK
A. Hill tilted the crease
A. Hill stopped 23 of 25 (0.920), +1.75 goals above expected.
Warning signs
WARNINGVGK
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 25 rush shots worth 2.96 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Positive trends
STRENGTHVGK
Dangerous off the rush
2 goals on 21 rush shots worth 2.51 xG.
STRENGTHVGK
Power play cashed in
2-for-4 on the power play (50%) on 0.96 PP xG.
STRENGTHVGK
A. Hill tilted the crease
A. Hill stopped 23 of 25 (0.920), +1.75 goals above expected.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseBavg 87→ FLAT
DefenseFavg 61▼ DECLINING
TransitionD+avg 72▼ DECLINING
Special teamsA+avg 85▲ IMPROVING
GoaltendingAavg 84▲ IMPROVING
DisciplineDavg 67→ FLAT
LuckA-avg 76▲ IMPROVING
VGK latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
DEPTH
Load index
3/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 31st-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
50,695
road miles flown
8
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
9
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
8
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
4
Longest road trip
3,757 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d8
1d51
2d19
3+d5
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
23 games with more rest than the opponent · 18 with fewer · 41 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,452 travel miles
Oct 6 – Oct 15
6 games in 12 days with 5,784 travel miles
Jan 9 – Jan 20
6 games in 10 days with 4,054 travel miles
Dec 26 – Jan 4
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach