STRENGTHWPG
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 35 rush shots worth 4.30 xG.
Morning report · executive brief
Winnipeg Jets
◆ By the ModelThu, Nov 5Latest file · Tue, Nov 32026-27As of Wed, Oct 7
One page on where Jetsactually stand: what the model likes, what it is worried about, and which of those worries are real problems rather than bad luck that should even out. Everything below is computed from this club's games — no votes, no panel.
Executive summary
Last time out (Tue, Nov 3): WPG 5 - 4 MTL (OT) — an overtime win over the Canadiens.
The model's top flag from that game: dangerous off the rush — 4 goals on 35 rush shots worth 4.30 xG.
Next opponent
Last game report card · WPG @ MTL · Tue, Nov 3
Graded vs a league-average game
Report card
DimensionWPGMTL
Offense
▸Basis
WPG Created 6.08 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 12 high-danger shots (2.78 xG) and 35 rush shots (4.30 xG).
MTL Created 3.51 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; 5 high-danger shots (1.12 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.22 xG).
A+
100
B+
89
Defense
▸Basis
WPG Allowed 3.51 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 5 high-danger shots (1.12 xG) and 20 rush shots (2.22 xG).
MTL Allowed 6.08 xG against a ~2.70 league-average game; conceded 12 high-danger shots (2.78 xG) and 35 rush shots (4.30 xG).
D-
61
F
20
Transition
▸Basis
WPG Rush shots 35–20, rush xG 4.30–2.22 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
MTL Rush shots 20–35, rush xG 2.22–4.30 (rush-based; public data has no zone entries).
A+
100
F
47
Special teams
▸Basis
WPG 0-for-5 on the power play (0%; league ≈21%) with 1.63 PP xG.
MTL 2-for-4 on the power play (50%; league ≈21%) with 1.01 PP xG.
D-
61
A+
100
Goaltending
▸Basis
WPG -0.49 goals saved above expected on 22 shots against.
MTL +1.08 goals saved above expected on 47 shots against.
C-
70
B
86
Discipline
▸Basis
WPG Took 7 penalties for 20 PIM vs 8 for 22 on the other side.
MTL Took 8 penalties for 22 PIM vs 7 for 20 on the other side.
B-
80
C-
70
Luck
Grades bounces, not skill — C is neutral
▸Basis
WPG Finishing -1.08 goals vs xG plus -0.49 GSAx of save luck = -1.57 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
MTL Finishing +0.49 goals vs xG plus +1.08 GSAx of save luck = +1.57 total. This grades luck, not skill — C is neutral, A is very lucky.
D-
62
B+
88
Source · NHL play-by-play · xG engine · luck graded separately
Five critical insights
WARNINGWPG
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 2.22 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
STRENGTHWPG
Won on the merits
The Jets controlled 63% of expected goals (6.08–3.51) and won 5-4 in overtime — result matched process.
STRENGTHWPG
S. Skinner was perfect on high danger
S. Skinner stopped all 5 high-danger shots he faced (100% HD save rate).
WARNINGWPG
Power play came up empty
0-for-5 with the man advantage on 1.63 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Warning signs
WARNINGWPG
Rush defense leaked all night
Gave up 20 rush shots worth 2.22 xG (2 goals) — transition gaps were there every period.
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
WARNINGWPG
Power play came up empty
0-for-5 with the man advantage on 1.63 PP xG.
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Positive trends
STRENGTHWPG
Dangerous off the rush
4 goals on 35 rush shots worth 4.30 xG.
STRENGTHWPG
Won on the merits
The Jets controlled 63% of expected goals (6.08–3.51) and won 5-4 in overtime — result matched process.
STRENGTHWPG
S. Skinner was perfect on high danger
S. Skinner stopped all 5 high-danger shots he faced (100% HD save rate).
STRENGTHWPG
M. Scheifele led the way
2A in 28:09 — the game's first star.
Grade trends · last graded games
OffenseA+avg 83▲ IMPROVING
DefenseD-avg 40▲ IMPROVING
TransitionA+avg 63▲ IMPROVING
Special teamsD-avg 65▼ DECLINING
GoaltendingC-avg 71→ FLAT
DisciplineB-avg 66▲ IMPROVING
LuckD-avg 62→ FLAT
WPG latest graded game vs the average of its prior graded games
Schedule load · logistics
How hard is this team’s season, logistically? This grades the schedule itself — travel, rest, and clustering — separate from how good the team is.
Logistics, not talent
Schedule load
AVERAGE
Load index
52/ 100 · pctile vs league
The 16th-heaviest schedule in the league — 84 games, 1.3 days average rest.
Total travel
48,930
road miles flown
9
Back-to-backs
2 games, 0 days off
13
3-in-4s
3 games / 4 nights
15
4-in-6s
4 games / 6 nights
6
Longest road trip
4,964 mi
Rest-days distribution
0d9
1d54
2d13
3+d7
Nights of rest before each game · 0 days = red, 3+ = green
Rest advantage
14 games with more rest than the opponent · 21 with fewer · 48 even.
Hardest stretches
6 games in 10 days with 4,410 travel miles
Oct 27 – Nov 5
6 games in 10 days with 3,774 travel miles
Nov 23 – Dec 2
6 games in 11 days with 4,276 travel miles
Feb 19 – Mar 1
Source · NHL schedule · arena coordinates · rest & travel model
Recommended actions
- 01
Tighten neutral-zone structure and keep D gaps closed on entries.
Rush defense leaked all nightcoach - 02
Rework PP entries and get a body to the net-front.
Power play came up emptycoach