S. Knight nearly stole a game. Florida controlled 61% of 5-on-5 expected goals (3.82–2.40 xG) and 66% of shot attempts (37–19), but won 3–2—a margin that understates their dominance. Goaltending variance explains the gap: Chicago's goalie outperformed his expected outcome by 0.82, while Florida underperformed their expected goals by the same amount. The Panthers should have won more decisively.

High-danger chances split 4–4, meaning neither team gained an edge in the most dangerous areas. The turning point came at 9:40 of the third when Jesper Boqvist deflected home from the doorstep.

Florida's rush conversion lagged behind its volume: 3 goals on 34 chances. Chicago, working fewer rush opportunities (17), converted twice at a higher rate. On paper, that efficiency split shouldn't matter when one team controls 66% of shot attempts, yet it kept the scoreboard tighter than the underlying numbers warrant.

Depth sustained Florida's edge. F. Nazar (1G, 1A in 20:14), T. Bertuzzi (2A in 19:10), and T. Teravainen (1G, 1A in 18:05) got it done, but Knight's outperformance was the only reason this game remained competitive.

Three Stars

• #91 F. Nazar — 1G, 1A in 20:14
• #59 T. Bertuzzi — 2A in 19:10
• #86 T. Teravainen — 1G, 1A in 18:05

Models favor Florida by 58 percent. That's because the Panthers own the play. Florida's 49.0 percent expected goals share crushes Chicago's 42.0 percent, and the territorial advantage is decisive—a 52.0 to 46.0 Corsi split means the Blackhawks defend more than they dictate. PDO (shooting luck) is nearly identical for both teams—Chicago at 0.996, Florida at 0.989—so the gap isn't variance. It's work rate.

The model projects a 2.4–2.9 finish in Florida's favor. That understates how thoroughly the Panthers should control this game.

Chicago's offense runs through Tyler Bertuzzi. At 0.85 expected goals per 60 minutes, he's the Blackhawks' most dangerous threat, with 20 goals and 15 assists backing an 18.0 shooting percentage. Seven of his goals came from high-danger chances—the kind of hot efficiency that punishes teams in a short series. Connor Bedard (0.82 xG/60, 17 goals, 27 assists) drives play from the wing. His 11.8 shooting percentage suggests the goals will arrive in clusters, since his underlying production is genuinely there.

Florida counters with Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand. Bennett carries a 0.97 xG/60 with six high-danger goals, making him a critical interior presence if available. Marchand (0.93 xG/60, 17 goals) brings playoff-caliber finishing at 19.5 percent shooting. Both face health questions that will reshape this matchup if either misses the ice.

None of that matters if Florida executes its system. The Panthers don't need Marchand or Bennett to explode—they need to do what they've done all season: Push more possessions than Chicago sees, force the Blackhawks into the defensive third, and let efficiency finish the work. The model trusts that recipe. So should you.

Players to Watch

Chicago

• Tyler Bertuzzi: 0.85 xG/60, 20 goals, 15 assists
• Connor Bedard: 0.82 xG/60, 17 goals, 27 assists

Florida

• Sam Bennett: 0.97 xG/60, 18 goals, 19 assists
• Brad Marchand: 0.93 xG/60, 17 goals, 9 assists