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← Wed, Oct 8 · the slate
Breakdown · LAK at VGK

Kings steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Final / OTWed, Oct 8
LAKLos Angeles Kings6VGKVegas Golden Knights5
The verdict · stolen

The Kings stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.33–3.73 and won anyway.

LAK 6 · VGK 5
◆ By the ModelJul 12, 1:13 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

The Kings edged the Golden Knights 6-5 in a shootout despite losing the xG battle 3.73–2.33. Vegas owned the game and lost anyway—this was a heist.

Golden Knights dominated by every metric: 62% of expected goals at 5v5, 57% of shot attempts (35–26), and 7–4 on high-danger chances. When a superior team plays like one and still loses, variance did the stealing.

Variance, specifically. The Golden Knights overperformed their xG by 1.27 goals; the Kings overperformed theirs by 3.67. A. Forsberg (LAK) gave up 1.27 more goals than expected yet won. A. Hill (VGK) gave up 2.67 more goals than expected and lost. Both goalies underperformed their shot quality.

The Kings were ruthless in high-leverage situations: 75% on high-danger chances and 5 goals on only 19 rush chances. Vegas was far less efficient—43% on high-danger chances and 5 goals on 32 rush chances. Vegas's only elite edge was the power play: 2 goals on 11 shots (0.95 xG).

P. Dorofeyev's backhander from the doorstep in the shootout was the decisive moment.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · SO · Oct 8
LAK
6
VGK
5

Kings steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

Chances 2.3 – 3.7Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Golden Knights deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
LAK
2.33
VGK
3.73
39% of the chances62%

The board read LAK 6, VGK 5. The chances read LAK 2.3, VGK 3.7.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
LAK
+3.7
goals above expected
LAK2.33 expected · 6 scored
Expected
Scored
VGK3.73 expected · 5 scored
Expected
Scored

The Kings scored 3.7 more than their chances were worth. That does not repeat.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 04:41LAKA. KuzmenkoPP1–0
  2. P1 11:57LAKQ. Byfield2–0
  3. P2 02:10VGKP. Dorofeyev2–1
  4. P2 13:41LAKJ. Malott3–1
  5. P2 17:32VGKP. DorofeyevPP3–2
  6. P2 19:14VGKP. DorofeyevPP3–3
  7. P3 05:06VGKJ. Eichel3–4
+6 more on the full breakdown
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
LAK
34 shots
7
Final
86 shots
VGK
52 shots
6
LAK attackVGK attack
LAK VGK Goal

Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

34
shots · 7 in
52
shots · 6 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
LAKVGK
3 / 4
0.87 xG
High danger
3 / 7
1.66 xG
1 / 10
1.05 xG
Medium
1 / 14
1.44 xG
1 / 32
0.41 xG
Low
1 / 49
0.63 xG

The Kings buried 3 of 4 high-danger looks.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
D-
A. Forsberg
−1.3
LAK · 30/35
F
A. Hill
−2.7
VGK · 21/26
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Kings steal one from the Golden Knights against the run of play

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 10–7
  1. 04:41LAKA. Kuzmenkopower play(A. Kopitar, K. Fiala)1–0
  2. 11:57LAKQ. Byfield2–0
2ndshots 6–16
  1. 02:10VGKP. Dorofeyev2–1
  2. 13:41LAKJ. Malott(J. Armia, A. Turcotte)3–1
  3. 17:32VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(M. Stone, J. Eichel)3–2
  4. 19:14VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play(M. Stone, J. Eichel)3–3
3rdshots 8–9
  1. 05:06VGKJ. Eichel(M. Marner, I. Barbashev)3–4
  2. 08:43VGKI. Barbashev(J. Eichel, M. Marner)3–5
  3. 11:39LAKT. Mooreshorthanded(P. Danault, D. Doughty)4–5
  4. 14:00LAKB. Clarke(Q. Byfield, A. Kuzmenko)5–5
OTshots 2–3no goals
    SO
    1. 00:00LAKA. Kempepower play5–5
    2. 00:00LAKT. Moorepower play5–5
    3. 00:00VGKP. Dorofeyevpower play5–5

    score reads LAK–VGK

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.33
    LAK chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +3.7
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.037
    LAK puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    39.7%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.33Expected goals3.73
    VGK 62% of the chance quality
    26Shots on goal35
    4High-danger chances7
    46All attempts (Corsi)70
    Adjusted for score: LAK 38% · VGK 62%
    Faceoffs · VGK won83%off50%neu56%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    LAK3 / 4 · 0.87 xG
    VGK3 / 7 · 1.66 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    LAK1 / 10 · 1.05 xG
    VGK1 / 14 · 1.44 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    LAK1 / 32 · 0.41 xG
    VGK1 / 49 · 0.63 xG

    LAK went 3-for-4 from high danger on 0.87 expected goals — 2.1 above expected.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    LAK
    6 G · 2.33 xG · +3.7
    VGK
    5 G · 3.73 xG · +1.3
    01234567

    LAK finished +3.7 against expected, VGK +1.3.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    LAK
    WRIST2/14
    SNAP1/8
    BACKHAND1/4
    SLAP0/2
    TIP IN0/2
    DEFLECTED1/1
    OTHER0/15
    VGK
    WRIST0/10
    SNAP4/16
    BACKHAND0/7
    SLAP1/8
    TIP IN0/7
    DEFLECTED0/1
    OTHER0/21
    LAK
    VGK
    Off the rush
    5 G on 19
    1.84 xG
    5 G on 32
    3.21 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 1
    0.04 xG
    0 G on 2
    0.13 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: LAK went 2-for-14, VGK 0-for-10. LAK scored 5 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    A. Forsberg
    LAK · 30/35 · .857
    -1.3
    saved above expected
    D-
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger3/71.7-1.3
    Medium1/141.4+0.4
    Low1/490.6-0.4

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    A. Hill
    VGK · 21/26 · .808
    -2.7
    saved above expected
    F
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger3/40.9-2.1
    Medium1/101.1+0.1
    Low1/320.4-0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    86 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    LAK
    34 shots
    7
    Final
    86 shots
    VGK
    52 shots
    6
    LAK attackVGK attack
    LAK VGK Goal

    Shootout goals are not shots and are not drawn; the scoreboard above counts goals from the shot log.

    Each club shoots toward its own end — LAK left, VGK right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    J. Eichel
    #9 · C · VGK
    1 G · 3 A · 5 SOG · 22:04 on ice · +2
    P. Dorofeyev
    #16 · R · VGK
    3 G · 0 A · 5 SOG · 20:14 on ice
    M. Marner
    #93 · R · VGK
    0 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 22:48 on ice · +2
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Wed, Oct 8
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Model draft
    ◆ By the ModelSep 22, 12:06 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a LAK 2.9 - 3.2 VGK game with the Golden Knights at 55% win probability.

    Keys to the game

    • Shutdown Assignment: Golden Knights. Key matchup: Neutralize Alex Laferriere (16G, 0.87 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
    • Shutdown Assignment: Kings. Key matchup: Neutralize Brandon Saad (3G, 0.91 xG/60, 1 HD goals)
    • Exploitable minutes: Adrian Kempe. Adrian Kempe is on ice for 2.47 xGA/60 and 43 high-danger shots against this season.

    Season 5v5 Numbers

    MetricLAKVGK
    xG%51.4%54.5%
    Corsi%52.1%52.3%
    PDO1.0010.983

    Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

    Where the Edges Live

    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 51.4%.

    Regression Watch

    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.

    Players to Watch

    LAK

    • Alex Laferriere — 0.87 xG/60, 16G 18A, 2 HD goals, 9.9% shooting
    • Jared Wright — 0.83 xG/60, 0G 4A

    VGK

    • Brandon Saad — 0.91 xG/60, 3G 6A, 1 HD goals, 4.1% shooting
    • Tomas Hertl — 0.88 xG/60, 5G 17A, 1 HD goals, 4.3% shooting

    Key Matchups

    LAK

    • Key matchup: Neutralize Alex Laferriere (16G, 0.87 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
    • Watch Jared Wright (0G, 0.0% shooting)

    VGK

    • Key matchup: Neutralize Brandon Saad (3G, 0.91 xG/60, 1 HD goals)
    • Watch Tomas Hertl (5G, 4.3% shooting)

    Tactical Notes

    • LAK: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
    • LAK defensive weak link: Adrian Kempe
    • VGK: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
    • VGK defensive weak link: Rasmus Andersson

    Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    VGK 55%
    55%
    VGK
    Model favorite
    45%
    55%
    LAK50VGK

    VGK by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score LAK 2.9–3.2 VGK; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    LAK← edge
    edge →VGK
    51.4%54.5%
    52.1%52.3%
    3.103.26
    2.932.71
    2.683.22
    2.902.95
    1.0010.983

    VGK holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.001 vs 0.983) says LAK has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · No games yet
    LAK
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    VGK
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    1.001
    LAK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.983
    VGK PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    TACTICALVGK

    Shutdown Assignment: Golden Knights

    Key matchup: Neutralize Alex Laferriere (16G, 0.87 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Alex Laferriere (16G, 0.87 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    TACTICALLAK

    Shutdown Assignment: Kings

    Key matchup: Neutralize Brandon Saad (3G, 0.91 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Brandon Saad (3G, 0.91 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    WARNINGLAK

    Exploitable minutes: Adrian Kempe

    Adrian Kempe is on ice for 2.47 xGA/60 and 43 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Adrian Kempe's shifts with the top line.

    WARNINGVGK

    Exploitable minutes: Rasmus Andersson

    Rasmus Andersson is on ice for 2.49 xGA/60 and 68 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Rasmus Andersson's shifts with the top line.

    Where the edges live
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 51.4%.
    Regression watch
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Golden Knights own the underlying play — 54.5% 5v5 xG vs 51.4%.
    • The Golden Knights' PDO is 0.983 — running cold, due for positive regression.
    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    LAK
    Alex Laferriere16G 18A
    0.87 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.9% sh
    Jared Wright0G 4A
    0.83 xG/60 · 0 HD · 0.0% sh
    VGK
    Brandon Saad3G 6A
    0.91 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.1% sh
    Tomas Hertl5G 17A
    0.88 xG/60 · 1 HD · 4.3% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page