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Breakdown · BOS at WSH

J. Swayman stands tall as the Bruins edge the Capitals

FinalWed, Oct 8
BOSBoston Bruins3WSHWashington Capitals1
The verdict · stolen

The Bruins stole one. They lost the expected-goals battle 2.60–4.86 and won anyway.

BOS 3 · WSH 1
◆ By the ModelJun 16, 1:54 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Washington dominated the underlying battle and lost anyway. The Capitals owned 65% of expected goals (4.86–2.60), controlled 62% of shot attempts (36–22), and generated eight high-danger chances to Boston's two. They should have won. They didn't.

J. Swayman made them pay for that inefficiency. The goaltender stopped 35 of 36 shots for a 0.972 save percentage, posting a +3.86 performance above expected—an outrageous margin that stole the game. Washington's offense, despite that advantage in volume, underperformed their xG by 3.9 goals.

Washington's collapse in the danger zone tells the story. They ripped eight high-danger chances and converted zero. Boston scored three goals on 22 shot attempts. Morgan Geekie's snap shot from the point (P3, 19:02) proved the game's turning moment.

The rebound narrative is telling: Washington created five rebound opportunities and buried none. Boston tried three times and succeeded once. In a tighter game this becomes academic; here, it's evidence that Washington wasted multiple cracks.

J. Swayman's wall on high-danger chances—a perfect 8-for-8 stop rate—was the margin. That gap doesn't close often. When it does, it looks exactly like this: a team with superior possession watching from behind.

Three Stars

  • #88 D. Pastrnak — 1G, 2A in 18:18
  • #28 E. Lindholm — 1G, 1A in 18:07
  • #39 M. Geekie — 1G, 1A in 17:07
The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 8
BOS
3
WSH
1

J. Swayman stands tall as the Bruins edge the Capitals

Chances 2.6 – 4.9Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Capitals deserved better.

Expected goals · chance value
BOS
2.60
WSH
4.86
35% of the chances65%

The board read BOS 3, WSH 1. The chances read BOS 2.6, WSH 4.9.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
BOS
+0.4
goals above expected
BOS2.60 expected · 3 scored
Expected
Scored
WSH4.86 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Capitals left 3.9 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P2 12:07BOSD. Pastrnak1–0
  2. P3 07:03WSHT. Wilson1–1
  3. P3 07:41BOSE. LindholmPP2–1
  4. P3 19:02BOSM. GeekieEN3–1
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
BOS
43 shots
3
Final
98 shots
WSH
55 shots
1
BOS attackWSH attack
BOS WSH Goal
43
shots · 3 in
55
shots · 1 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
BOSWSH
2 / 2
1.00 xG
High danger
0 / 8
1.94 xG
0 / 9
0.84 xG
Medium
1 / 20
2.22 xG
1 / 43
0.76 xG
Low
0 / 53
0.70 xG

The Capitals went 0 for 8 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A+
J. Swayman
+3.9
BOS · 35/36
B
L. Thompson
+0.6
WSH · 19/21
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

J. Swayman stands tall as the Bruins edge the Capitals

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 5–8no goals
    2ndshots 6–17
    1. 12:07BOSD. Pastrnak(N. Zadorov, M. Geekie)1–0
    3rdshots 11–11
    1. 07:03WSHT. Wilson(J. Chychrun, A. Protas)1–1
    2. 07:41BOSE. Lindholmpower play(D. Pastrnak, P. Zacha)2–1
    3. 19:02BOSM. Geekieempty net(D. Pastrnak, E. Lindholm)3–1

    score reads BOS–WSH

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    2.60
    BOS chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    +0.4
    Finishing
    Goals above what those chances were worth
    1.043
    BOS puck luck
    Above 1.000 — the bounces went their way
    40.0%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    2.60Expected goals4.86
    WSH 65% of the chance quality
    22Shots on goal36
    2High-danger chances8
    54All attempts (Corsi)81
    Adjusted for score: BOS 38% · WSH 62%
    Faceoffs · WSH won58%off50%neu38%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    BOS2 / 2 · 1.00 xG
    WSH0 / 8 · 1.94 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    BOS0 / 9 · 0.84 xG
    WSH1 / 20 · 2.22 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    BOS1 / 43 · 0.76 xG
    WSH0 / 53 · 0.70 xG

    WSH went 0-for-8 from high danger on 1.94 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    BOS
    3 G · 2.60 xG · +0.4
    WSH
    1 G · 4.86 xG · -3.9
    0123456

    BOS finished +0.4 against expected, WSH -3.9.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    BOS
    SNAP2/22
    WRIST0/5
    BACKHAND1/7
    TIP IN0/3
    SLAP0/6
    DEFLECTED0/0
    BAT0/0
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    OTHER0/11
    WSH
    SNAP1/30
    WRIST0/9
    BACKHAND0/3
    TIP IN0/6
    SLAP0/3
    DEFLECTED0/2
    BAT0/1
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    OTHER0/26
    BOS
    WSH
    Off the rush
    1 G on 22
    1.27 xG
    1 G on 35
    3.13 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.19 xG
    0 G on 5
    0.98 xG

    Snap shots carried the volume: BOS went 2-for-22, WSH 1-for-30.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Swayman
    BOS · 35/36 · .972
    +3.9
    saved above expected
    A+
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/81.9+1.9
    Medium1/202.2+1.2
    Low0/530.7+0.7

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    L. Thompson
    WSH · 19/21 · .905
    +0.6
    saved above expected
    B
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger2/21.0-1.0
    Medium0/90.8+0.8
    Low1/430.8-0.2

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    98 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    BOS
    43 shots
    3
    Final
    98 shots
    WSH
    55 shots
    1
    BOS attackWSH attack
    BOS WSH Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — BOS left, WSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    D. Pastrnak
    #88 · R · —
    1 G · 2 A · 3 SOG · 18:18 on ice · +2
    E. Lindholm
    #28 · C · —
    1 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 18:07 on ice · +2
    M. Geekie
    #39 · C · —
    1 G · 1 A · 1 SOG · 17:07 on ice · +2
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Wed, Oct 8
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Model draft
    ◆ By the ModelSep 22, 12:01 AMRaw model copyDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The model projects a BOS 3.1 - 3.5 WSH game with the Capitals at 55% win probability.

    Keys to the game

    • Shutdown Assignment: Capitals. Key matchup: Neutralize Viktor Arvidsson (18G, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
    • Shutdown Assignment: Bruins. Key matchup: Neutralize Anthony Beauvillier (14G, 0.89 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
    • Viktor Arvidsson drives the Bruins offense. Viktor Arvidsson: 18G 24A, 1.04 xG/60, 2 high-danger goals.

    Season 5v5 Numbers

    MetricBOSWSH
    xG%46.7%49.6%
    Corsi%49.0%49.5%
    PDO1.0221.018

    Rates from 2025-26 — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet.

    Regression Watch

    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    • The Bruins' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.

    Players to Watch

    BOS

    • Viktor Arvidsson — 1.04 xG/60, 18G 24A, 2 HD goals, 13.0% shooting
    • Tanner Jeannot — 0.75 xG/60, 6G 14A, 2 HD goals, 8.3% shooting

    WSH

    • Anthony Beauvillier — 0.89 xG/60, 14G 9A, 2 HD goals, 10.4% shooting
    • Aliaksei Protas — 0.84 xG/60, 17G 19A, 5 HD goals, 13.5% shooting

    Key Matchups

    BOS

    • Key matchup: Neutralize Viktor Arvidsson (18G, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
    • Watch Tanner Jeannot (6G, 8.3% shooting)

    WSH

    • Key matchup: Neutralize Anthony Beauvillier (14G, 0.89 xG/60, 2 HD goals)
    • Watch Aliaksei Protas (17G, 13.5% shooting)

    Tactical Notes

    • BOS: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
    • BOS defensive weak link: Elias Lindholm
    • WSH: 0% HD goal rate, 0% rebound goal rate
    • WSH defensive weak link: Declan Chisholm

    Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    WSH 55%
    55%
    WSH
    Model favorite
    45%
    55%
    BOS50WSH

    WSH by 10 points of win probability — a modest lean. Projected score BOS 3.1–3.5 WSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    BOS← edge
    edge →WSH
    46.7%49.6%
    49.0%49.5%
    2.973.23
    3.393.29
    3.273.18
    3.012.90
    1.0221.018

    WSH holds 5 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.022 vs 1.018) says BOS has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · No games yet
    BOS
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    WSH
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    1.022
    BOS PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    1.018
    WSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    TACTICALWSH

    Shutdown Assignment: Capitals

    Key matchup: Neutralize Viktor Arvidsson (18G, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Viktor Arvidsson (18G, 1.04 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    TACTICALBOS

    Shutdown Assignment: Bruins

    Key matchup: Neutralize Anthony Beauvillier (14G, 0.89 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Anthony Beauvillier (14G, 0.89 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    WARNINGBOS

    Exploitable minutes: Elias Lindholm

    Elias Lindholm is on ice for 2.80 xGA/60 and 40 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Elias Lindholm's shifts with the top line.

    WARNINGWSH

    Exploitable minutes: Declan Chisholm

    Declan Chisholm is on ice for 3.21 xGA/60 and 25 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Declan Chisholm's shifts with the top line.

    Regression watch
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    • The Bruins' PDO is 1.022 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Things to watch
    • The Capitals' PDO is 1.018 — running hot, expect some regression.
    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    BOS
    Viktor Arvidsson18G 24A
    1.04 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.0% sh
    Tanner Jeannot6G 14A
    0.75 xG/60 · 2 HD · 8.3% sh
    WSH
    Alex Ovechkin19G 17A
    0.97 xG/60 · 2 HD · 13.8% sh
    Anthony Beauvillier14G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 2 HD · 10.4% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page