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Motion-blurred skater in a Nashville Predators sweater
← Thu, Oct 9 · the slate
Breakdown · CBJ at NSH

Predators hold off the Blue Jackets

FinalThu, Oct 9
CBJColumbus Blue Jackets1NSHNashville Predators2
The verdict · earned

The Predators earned it — the game and the expected-goals battle both.

CBJ 1 · NSH 2
◆ By the ModelJun 16, 2:15 PMxG: xgboost-0.758Edited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

Nashville won 2-1 while being outshot 39-32, a scoreline that seemed improbable until the expected goals numbers arrived: NSH held a 53-47 edge (3.79–3.32), meaning they simply took better shots. The disparity in shot quality was deliberate—NSH managed 0.063 expected goals per shot versus CBJ's 0.046, the mark of a team that valued efficiency over volume.

What made this formula work was goaltending. J. Saros stopped 38 of 39 shots (0.974 SV%), +2.32 versus expected—a surplus that swallowed NSH's own underperformance. CBJ's J. Greaves matched that standard, finishing 30 of 32 (0.938 SV%), +1.79 above model. Both teams left points on the table. NSH, despite that xG edge, should have potted 3.79 goals and settled for 2. CBJ, expected to produce 3.32, managed 1. The gap explained the scoreline: when both offenses misfire, the team with the advantage takes it anyway.

High-danger chances reinforced the winner. NSH generated five; CBJ three. The turn came early—Ryan O'Reilly's backhander from the doorstep in the third period (02:41)—a goal that ended debate, though statistically it shouldn't have been necessary.

The breakdown in twelve frames

Swipe it

Every number is from this page
Final · Oct 9
CBJ
1
NSH
2

Predators hold off the Blue Jackets

Chances 3.3 – 3.8Did they deserve it? →
Did they deserve it?

The Predators earned this one.

Expected goals · chance value
CBJ
3.32
NSH
3.79
47% of the chances53%

The board read CBJ 1, NSH 2. The chances read CBJ 3.3, NSH 3.8.

Our xG model · NHL play-by-play · all situations
Luck check
NSH
−1.8
goals above expected
NSH3.79 expected · 2 scored
Expected
Scored
CBJ3.32 expected · 1 scored
Expected
Scored

The Blue Jackets left 2.3 goals on the table against what their chances were worth.

PDO = sh% + sv% · drifts to 1.000 over a season
Every goal, in order
  1. P1 06:45NSHM. Bunting0–1
  2. P1 16:01CBJD. Voronkov1–1
  3. P3 02:41NSHR. O'ReillyPP1–2
NHL play-by-play · chance value from our xG model
Where the shots came from
CBJ
51 shots
1
Final
96 shots
NSH
45 shots
2
CBJ attackNSH attack
CBJ NSH Goal
51
shots · 1 in
45
shots · 2 in
Every unblocked shot · press play to replay it
Chances by danger
CBJNSH
0 / 3
0.69 xG
High danger
1 / 5
1.38 xG
1 / 20
2.00 xG
Medium
0 / 18
1.88 xG
0 / 49
0.63 xG
Low
1 / 37
0.53 xG

The Blue Jackets went 0 for 3 from the slot.

Danger tiers by our xG model · high ≥ 20% chance
In the net
A
J. Saros
+2.3
NSH · 38/39
A
J. Greaves
+1.8
CBJ · 30/32
The numbers, checked
BACKCHECK

Predators hold off the Blue Jackets

A model, not a newsroom. Every number on these frames comes from the NHL's play-by-play and our own models. Nothing was watched, guessed or heard from anyone.

Read the full breakdown
backcheckreport.com
01 / 08 · Final
Every goal, in order

How it happened

NHL play-by-play
1stshots 15–9
  1. 06:45NSHM. Bunting(E. Haula)0–1
  2. 16:01CBJD. Voronkov(D. Severson, D. Mateychuk)1–1
2ndshots 14–9no goals
    3rdshots 10–14
    1. 02:41NSHR. O'Reillypower play(F. Forsberg, R. Josi)1–2

    score reads CBJ–NSH

    Source · NHL play-by-play (api-web.nhle.com)
    Process vs result

    The numbers

    XGBoost xG · NHL play-by-play
    3.79
    NSH chances
    Goals their shots were worth
    −1.8
    Finishing
    Goals below what those chances were worth
    1.019
    NSH puck luck
    About 1.000 — a normal night for bounces
    45.5%
    Shot attempts
    Under half — they were outshot
    Split by club

    Who controlled the game

    3.32Expected goals3.79
    NSH 53% of the chance quality
    39Shots on goal32
    3High-danger chances5
    72All attempts (Corsi)60
    Adjusted for score: CBJ 56% · NSH 44%
    Faceoffs · NSH won50%off57%neu50%def
    Source · NHL play-by-play · XGBoost xG
    How the game was won

    The danger ladder

    shotsgoalsexpected
    High dangerslot & crease
    CBJ0 / 3 · 0.69 xG
    NSH1 / 5 · 1.38 xG
    Medium dangermid-range
    CBJ1 / 20 · 2.00 xG
    NSH0 / 18 · 1.88 xG
    Low dangerperimeter & point
    CBJ0 / 49 · 0.63 xG
    NSH1 / 37 · 0.53 xG

    NSH went 0-for-18 from medium danger on 1.88 expected goals — 1.9 left on the table.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL play-by-play
    The luck layer

    Finishing vs expected

    expectedactual
    CBJ
    1 G · 3.32 xG · -2.3
    NSH
    2 G · 3.79 xG · -1.8
    012345

    CBJ finished -2.3 against expected, NSH -1.8.

    Source · Backcheck xG model
    Shot types · rush and rebound chancesopen +
    What they shot — and what went in

    Shot diet

    goalsshots
    CBJ
    WRIST0/27
    SNAP0/11
    SLAP0/6
    DEFLECTED0/1
    TIP IN1/4
    BACKHAND0/2
    WRAP AROUND0/0
    BAT0/0
    OTHER0/21
    NSH
    WRIST0/20
    SNAP0/5
    SLAP1/9
    DEFLECTED0/5
    TIP IN0/2
    BACKHAND1/2
    WRAP AROUND0/1
    BAT0/1
    OTHER0/15
    CBJ
    NSH
    Off the rush
    1 G on 32
    2.45 xG
    2 G on 30
    3.10 xG
    Off rebounds
    0 G on 3
    0.36 xG
    0 G on 2
    0.21 xG

    Wrist shots carried the volume: CBJ went 0-for-27, NSH 0-for-20. NSH scored 2 of theirs off the rush.

    Source · Backcheck xG model · NHL shot types
    New to these numbers?

    Two things happened in this game: who created the better chances, and who put the puck in the net. They are not the same thing, and this page separates them on purpose.

    The one to watch is expected goals— the best single read on who deserved to win. When it disagrees with the scoreboard, that disagreement is usually the story. Nothing here is a projection; every figure is computed from this game's play-by-play. Full glossary →

    xG
    Expected goals. Every shot scored by how often that exact look goes in. 2.5 xG means the chances were worth about two and a half goals.
    HD
    High-danger chances — shots from the slot and the crease, where shots actually become goals.
    Corsi
    Every shot attempt, including the ones that missed or got blocked. A rough read on who had the puck.
    Adj.
    Score-adjusted. Teams that trail shoot more and teams that lead sit back, so this corrects the attempt count for the scoreboard.
    GSAx
    Goals saved above expected. A positive number means the goalie stopped more than an average goalie would have on those shots.
    PDO
    Shooting % plus save % — a luck gauge. It sits near 1.000 over a season, so a game far from it usually means the bounces decided it.
    Shot by shot

    In the net

    Graded on goals saved above expected
    J. Greaves
    CBJ · 30/32 · .938
    +1.8
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger1/51.4+0.4
    Medium0/181.9+1.9
    Low1/370.5-0.5

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    J. Saros
    NSH · 38/39 · .974
    +2.3
    saved above expected
    A
    the night
    By dangerG/attxGsaved
    High danger0/30.7+0.7
    Medium1/202.0+1.0
    Low0/490.6+0.6

    A+ ≥ +2.5 saved above expected · A ≥ +1.5 · B+ ≥ +0.75 · B ≥ +0.25 · C ≥ −0.25 · D ≥ −0.75 · F below −1.5

    96 shots · press play to watch the game back

    Where the shots came from

    NHL play-by-play coordinates
    CBJ
    51 shots
    1
    Final
    96 shots
    NSH
    45 shots
    2
    CBJ attackNSH attack
    CBJ NSH Goal

    Each club shoots toward its own end — CBJ left, NSH right — the way you would watch it. A dot's size is how dangerous the look was, from distance and angle; it is a proxy for shot quality, not the xG model the article is written from. Hover a dot for the shooter and the clock.

    Ranked from the box score

    Three stars

    Points first
    Three stars · computed, not voted
    R. Josi
    #59 · D · —
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 22:51 on ice · -1
    D. Severson
    #78 · D · —
    0 G · 1 A · 2 SOG · 19:57 on ice · +1
    F. Forsberg
    #9 · L · —
    0 G · 1 A · 3 SOG · 19:27 on ice · -1
    Ranked from the box score — points first · Backcheck
    What the model said beforehand

    Before the game

    Written Thu, Oct 9
    Open the pre-game read
    Written from the numbers

    The read

    Edited for clarity
    ◆ By the ModelSep 22, 12:25 AMEdited for clarityDrafted from NHL play-by-play by Backcheck's model, worded for clarity by an AI editor that may not change a number. Nobody at Backcheck was at the rink. How this works

    The Predators are 51% to win. The model projects 3.2 expected goals for Columbus, 3.3 for Nashville — a spread that rounds to even.

    Columbus owns the possession edge. Their 51.1% Corsi and 50.0% expected-goals share manifests as Boone Jenner, who generates 0.98 xG/60 and has converted that volume into 11 goals and 21 assists. His 9.6% shooting rate signals fortune: Columbus sits at 1.003 PDO, roughly half a goal of overperformance built into their season numbers. Mathieu Olivier provides secondary punch — 0.89 xG/60, 12 goals, 9 assists, and a 13.3% shooting clip that implies strong consistency.

    Nashville's counter is Filip Forsberg, whose 0.80 xG/60 has translated to 23 goals and 17 assists. His 4 high-danger goals and 13.6% shooting indicate he's converting at an above-expected rate. Zachary L'Heureux, emerging on the wing, has just 4 goals and 1 high-danger goal, but generates 0.85 xG/60 and shoots at 16.0% — a small sample that implies higher-leverage chances.

    Nashville trails in both possession dimensions: 48.7% expected-goals share, 49.5% Corsi. Their 0.992 PDO indicates slight puck luck working against them — a half-goal swing from Columbus's fortune that compounds when margins are one goal.

    The defensive vulnerabilities are matched: Conor Garland for Columbus, Jonathan Marchessault for Nashville. Both teams register 0% high-danger-goal rate and 0% rebound-goal rate.

    This tilts on goaltending. The possession metrics are balanced, the volume is matched, and the expected-goal margin is invisible. Whichever starter is steadier wins.

    Rates from 2025-26 season — the 2026-27 sample isn't live yet. Data: NHL API, Backcheck xG model.

    What the model said beforehand

    The model's lean

    NSH 51%
    51%
    NSH
    Model favorite
    49%
    51%
    CBJ50NSH

    NSH by 2 points of win probability — effectively a coin flip. Projected score CBJ 3.2–3.3 NSH; 16% chance it's tied after 60.

    Source · Backcheck Poisson projection · season scoring rates
    Season rates · 5v5

    Tale of the tape

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CBJ← edge
    edge →NSH
    50.0%48.7%
    51.1%49.5%
    3.143.09
    3.143.24
    3.002.95
    3.063.26
    1.0030.992

    CBJ holds 6 of 6 process categories — and the luck row (1.003 vs 0.992) says CBJ has been getting the bounces, which tends not to last.

    Source · NHL stats API + our xG · 5v5
    Form · No games yet
    CBJ
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    NSH
    0-0-0
    +0 GD · 0d rest
    1.003
    CBJ PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    0.992
    NSH PDO
    Luck gauge · drifts to 1.000
    What decides it

    Keys to the game

    TACTICALNSH

    Shutdown Assignment: Predators

    Key matchup: Neutralize Boone Jenner (11G, 0.98 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Boone Jenner (11G, 0.98 xG/60, 2 HD goals)

    TACTICALCBJ

    Shutdown Assignment: Blue Jackets

    Key matchup: Neutralize Zachary L'Heureux (4G, 0.85 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    Key matchup: Neutralize Zachary L'Heureux (4G, 0.85 xG/60, 1 HD goals)

    WARNINGCBJ

    Exploitable minutes: Conor Garland

    Conor Garland is on ice for 2.93 xGA/60 and 40 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Conor Garland's shifts with the top line.

    WARNINGNSH

    Exploitable minutes: Jonathan Marchessault

    Jonathan Marchessault is on ice for 3.07 xGA/60 and 40 high-danger shots against this season.

    Hunt matchups against Jonathan Marchessault's shifts with the top line.

    Things to watch
    • Two evenly matched teams on paper — this one tilts on goaltending.
    Computed danger · scouting

    Players to watch

    NHL stats API · our xG
    CBJ
    Boone Jenner11G 21A
    0.98 xG/60 · 2 HD · 9.6% sh
    Mathieu Olivier12G 9A
    0.89 xG/60 · 1 HD · 13.3% sh
    NSH
    Zachary L'Heureux4G 0A
    0.85 xG/60 · 1 HD · 16.0% sh
    Filip Forsberg23G 17A
    0.80 xG/60 · 4 HD · 13.6% sh
    Keep going

    Where to next

    Back to the front page