Devils run the Lightning off the ice on the underlying numbers

The 5-3 scoreline flattered Tampa Bay. New Jersey controlled 62% of five-on-five expected goals (3.93–2.37), built that advantage on 31 shot attempts to 17, and commanded the quality of opportunity—0.061 expected goals per shot versus Tampa's 0.044. The Lightning needed their goalie to save the game; instead, A. Vasilevskiy let in 1.07 goals more than expected, widening a gap that already existed.

New Jersey's win came as predicted. They outshot Tampa 31–17, dominated high-danger chances 5–2, and converted cleanly on quality looks. Darren Raddysh's wrist shot from the top of the circles (third period, 16:17) proved the turning point. The Devils' rush game was particularly lethal—four goals on 30 attempts, compared to Tampa's three goals on 19 chances. Both teams generated rebound opportunities, but New Jersey finished them more often.

The underlying efficiency told the story. New Jersey overperformed their expected goals by 1.07—a rare edge in possession hockey. J. Markstrom posted a 0.824 save percentage but also underperformed, allowing 0.63 more goals than expected. A. Vasilevskiy's 0.839 mark looked respectable until adjusted for quality—a full goal worse than it should have been, leaving Tampa short.

Tampa Bay's two low-danger goals represented the kind of mistakes opposing goalies are supposed to prevent. For New Jersey, the game confirmed what the analytics suggested: a control win so decisive that even a close scoreline understates it.